I've decided to move this blog over to Wordpress so that I can use some more powerful software.
You can now find me at:
http://jasonsbaseballblog.wordpress.com
Thanks for the reads, and look forward to continuing my writings!
- Jason
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Barry Larkin
Baseball Reference.Com Profile
Career Accomplishments
2340 hits
379 steals
OPS+ of 116
9 Silver Sluggers
12 All Star Appearances
1 MVP Award (1995)
9 seasons with .300 average
20 homer-20 steal seasons: 2
The Case for Larkin
Larkin was one of the most productive hitters at shortstop during his era. He hit .300 9 times, won 9 Silver Slugger awards, and the 1995 MVP award. He finished with 2340 career hits and 379 steals, all with the Cincinnati Reds.
The Case Against Larkin
Larkin appears to have had a difficult time staying healthy, appearing in 140+ games only 7 times out of 17 (strike year excluded). His contemporaries were either excellent hitters and solid fielders, or excellent fielders who hit at an above average clip.
Analysis
12 All-Star Appearances and 5 All-Star starts tends to lead me to believe that Larkin was consistently among the top players at his position each year. He spent most of his seasons fighting Ozzie Smith for that position at the game. He won the Most Valuable Player award in 1995 behind a 15 homer, 51 stolen base, .319/.394/.492 season.
His overall career totals do not seem that impressive to me (379 steals, 2340 hits), so let's take a look at the year-to-year numbers and see if there are some elite periods in there. From 1989-1996, Larkin hit .298 or better 7 times, stole 20 bases 5 times, and hit 15+ homers 3 times. This appears to be his longest period of excellence. However, during that time, he only played 150 games 2 times, and in the strike years (1994, 1995), he did play in almost all of the games played that year.
The problem I keep running into is that Larkin never really seems to have been elite. He never had a 200 hit season, had only 2 100 run seasons, and really seems like he was not dominant for even a couple of years. Based on that, I am inclined to believe that Larkin is a very good player, and had a very good career. However, I do not believe that he warrants Hall of Fame induction.
MY VOTE: NO
Career Accomplishments
2340 hits
379 steals
OPS+ of 116
9 Silver Sluggers
12 All Star Appearances
1 MVP Award (1995)
9 seasons with .300 average
20 homer-20 steal seasons: 2
The Case for Larkin
Larkin was one of the most productive hitters at shortstop during his era. He hit .300 9 times, won 9 Silver Slugger awards, and the 1995 MVP award. He finished with 2340 career hits and 379 steals, all with the Cincinnati Reds.
The Case Against Larkin
Larkin appears to have had a difficult time staying healthy, appearing in 140+ games only 7 times out of 17 (strike year excluded). His contemporaries were either excellent hitters and solid fielders, or excellent fielders who hit at an above average clip.
Analysis
12 All-Star Appearances and 5 All-Star starts tends to lead me to believe that Larkin was consistently among the top players at his position each year. He spent most of his seasons fighting Ozzie Smith for that position at the game. He won the Most Valuable Player award in 1995 behind a 15 homer, 51 stolen base, .319/.394/.492 season.
His overall career totals do not seem that impressive to me (379 steals, 2340 hits), so let's take a look at the year-to-year numbers and see if there are some elite periods in there. From 1989-1996, Larkin hit .298 or better 7 times, stole 20 bases 5 times, and hit 15+ homers 3 times. This appears to be his longest period of excellence. However, during that time, he only played 150 games 2 times, and in the strike years (1994, 1995), he did play in almost all of the games played that year.
The problem I keep running into is that Larkin never really seems to have been elite. He never had a 200 hit season, had only 2 100 run seasons, and really seems like he was not dominant for even a couple of years. Based on that, I am inclined to believe that Larkin is a very good player, and had a very good career. However, I do not believe that he warrants Hall of Fame induction.
MY VOTE: NO
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Trade Review - PHI/SEA/TOR/OAK
Philadelphia Phillies receive SP Roy Halladay (TOR), RP Philippe Aumont (SEA), P Juan Ramirez (SEA), OF Tyson Gillies (SEA), and $6,000,000 (TOR)
Seattle Mariners receive SP Cliff Lee (PHI)
Toronto Blue Jays receive C Travis D'Arnaud (PHI), SP Kyle Drabek (PHI), and 1B/3B Brett Wallace (OAK)
Oakland Athletics receive OF Michael Taylor (PHI)
The Phillies
At first, these trades seemed odd to me. They went and got Halladay, whom they had coveted for quite a while. I had visions of how tough a rotation that would be throughout the year - Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton. And then the other shoe fell and they moved Lee as well. The prospects they received are interesting, but I'm not 100% sure that the return they got for Lee was similar to the package that they gave up to get him initially.
What is there to be said about Roy Halladay, really? He has won 16 games or more each of the last 4 seasons. He won 20 last year. He has posted a sub-3.20 era 4 of the last 5 seasons. He struck out 200 batters the last 2 seasons. He won the 2003 Cy Young Award. He has established himself as one of the most durable, and best pitchers in the majors. While it isn't a huge upgrade for this year between Lee and Halladay, the fact that they are getting him signed to an extension (sounds like it will be 3 yrs, $60 million at the moment) is critical to this trade being a success for the Phillies. That new extension will take him through the age of 36. So the Phillies are getting some of his best potential years to come, and not signing him to a ridiculously long extension.
Aumont has been working as a reliever exclusively, splitting time between High-A and AA. He posted a respectable line of 3.88 with 16 saves and 59 strikeouts in 51 innings between the two stops. Aumont finished last season as the #3 prospect according to John Sickels, and was generally considered to be a high-end pitching prospect. I think that Aumont would be a lot more interesting as a starting pitcher, but it remains to be seen whether or not the Phillies will convert him back or not.
Juan Ramirez looks like a solid starting pitching prospect. In the California League in 2009, he posted an 8-10 record with a 5.12 era, 111 strikeouts and 53 walks in 153 innings. I am more interested in his 2008 numbers, due to their being accomplished in the Midwest League. His line that year: 6-9, 4.14 era, 113 strikeouts, and 38 walks in 124 innings pitched. John Sickels had him at #4 in the Mariners system at the end of the 2008 season.
Gillies appears to be a very good speedster out in the outfield. He posted a .341/.430/.486 line with 9 homers and 44 steals. While these numbers are a bit inflated due to his playing the full season in the California League (known for its offense numbers), he also posted similar numbers in 2008 in the Northwest League (.313/.439/.427). He doesn't appear that he has a lot of power, but its possible he could grow into that as he gets older. He will be only 21 when the 2010 season begins.
The Mariners
I think that the Mariners did really well here. They gave up a prospect whose luster had faded (Aumont), and two young prospects who are realistically unlikely to help the Major League team in the next 3 years. They turned those players into another ace for the top of their pitching staff. The combination of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee at the top of their rotation really solidifies the Mariners' chances to win their division next year. When you add in the fact that the Angels have lost 2 major players on their team (Lackey, Figgins), and replaced them with very little as of yet, I really like the Mariners to win this division as of right now.
The Blue Jays
The Jays really felt like they had to move Halladay, or potentially lose him to free agency for just some draft picks. The return they got, in my opinion, is fair. Not a slam dunk, but fair. Wallace becomes the heir apparent to first base in my opinion, and speculation is already out there that the Jays could move Lyle Overbay. Wallace had a very good year between AA Springfield, AAA Memphis, and AAA Sacramento, posting a .293/.367/.455 line with 20 homers and 63 rbi. He appears to be a solid prospect, and should turn out to be a solid major league starter.
Kyle Drabek ended this season as probably the top pitching prospect in the Phillies organization. He finished 12-3, with a 3.19 era. He finished with 150 strikeouts against 50 walks in 158 innings pitched. He pitched in AA last season, and is likely to start the season in AAA. The Blue Jays realistically, don't need him to hit the majors for at least another season, with all the excellent starting pitchers that are already at or near the majors (Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Marc Rzepcynski, Jesse Litsch, Scott Richmond, David Purcey, Robert Ray). So it really just increases their depth in pitching.
Travis D'Arnaud is a very young catcher who spent the season at Single-A Lakewood. He posted a .255/.319/.419 line with 13 homers, 71 rbi, and 8 steals. I actually am not too familiar with him, so I went looking for a good profile of him, and found it here. After reading it, it appears he is considered to be a solid defensive catcher who is likely to stick at the position long term. A solid catching prospect overall.
Overall, I think that the Blue Jays did manage to address some specific positional needs in trading Halladay, and while this return isn't necessarily as high as it would have been had he been moved in July, they did well to get some solid prospects here.
The Athletics
For my hometown A's, I really like this trade. This makes me believe that the A's do not believe that Wallace could stick at 3B, where they really needed him. So they turn him into a top-tier outfield prospect. While I would normally be concerned about the fact that they already have a ton of outfielders at or near the major league level (Rajai Davis, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Ryan Sweeney all come to mind), I am inclined to believe that Taylor is better than most, if not all, of these players. The Athletics are always seeming to be short of power hitters, and Taylor definitely fits the bill. He posted a .320/.395/.544 line between AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley for the Phillies last year, along with 20 homers and 21 stolen bases. The movement of Wallace also makes Jake Fox (recently acquired from the Cubs) to be the main option at 3B besides the permanently injured (sad, sad I know) Eric Chavez. I am amazed that Billy Beane managed to make his way into this trade, and gave up a solid prospect for a better one in my opinion.
Overall Review
I think that overall, each team did well with this trade. The Mariners appear to be making at least a partial push to win now. The A's get a power bat that they desperately need. The Blue Jays get 3 solid prospects that will help their team to rebuild their farm system. The Phillies get an even better ace for the top of their pitching staff, and 3 high-end prospects as well. And somehow they got the Phillies to kick in $6 million bucks! It remains to be seen exactly how the prospects involved are going to turn out, and whether or not Halladay can stay healthy for the length of his new extension. But after trying to make sense of this for the past 24 hours, I can safely say that each team has improved themselves in at least some small manner.
CURRENT WINNER: Seattle Mariners
LONG-TERM WINNER: Philadelphia Phillies
Seattle Mariners receive SP Cliff Lee (PHI)
Toronto Blue Jays receive C Travis D'Arnaud (PHI), SP Kyle Drabek (PHI), and 1B/3B Brett Wallace (OAK)
Oakland Athletics receive OF Michael Taylor (PHI)
The Phillies
At first, these trades seemed odd to me. They went and got Halladay, whom they had coveted for quite a while. I had visions of how tough a rotation that would be throughout the year - Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton. And then the other shoe fell and they moved Lee as well. The prospects they received are interesting, but I'm not 100% sure that the return they got for Lee was similar to the package that they gave up to get him initially.
What is there to be said about Roy Halladay, really? He has won 16 games or more each of the last 4 seasons. He won 20 last year. He has posted a sub-3.20 era 4 of the last 5 seasons. He struck out 200 batters the last 2 seasons. He won the 2003 Cy Young Award. He has established himself as one of the most durable, and best pitchers in the majors. While it isn't a huge upgrade for this year between Lee and Halladay, the fact that they are getting him signed to an extension (sounds like it will be 3 yrs, $60 million at the moment) is critical to this trade being a success for the Phillies. That new extension will take him through the age of 36. So the Phillies are getting some of his best potential years to come, and not signing him to a ridiculously long extension.
Aumont has been working as a reliever exclusively, splitting time between High-A and AA. He posted a respectable line of 3.88 with 16 saves and 59 strikeouts in 51 innings between the two stops. Aumont finished last season as the #3 prospect according to John Sickels, and was generally considered to be a high-end pitching prospect. I think that Aumont would be a lot more interesting as a starting pitcher, but it remains to be seen whether or not the Phillies will convert him back or not.
Juan Ramirez looks like a solid starting pitching prospect. In the California League in 2009, he posted an 8-10 record with a 5.12 era, 111 strikeouts and 53 walks in 153 innings. I am more interested in his 2008 numbers, due to their being accomplished in the Midwest League. His line that year: 6-9, 4.14 era, 113 strikeouts, and 38 walks in 124 innings pitched. John Sickels had him at #4 in the Mariners system at the end of the 2008 season.
Gillies appears to be a very good speedster out in the outfield. He posted a .341/.430/.486 line with 9 homers and 44 steals. While these numbers are a bit inflated due to his playing the full season in the California League (known for its offense numbers), he also posted similar numbers in 2008 in the Northwest League (.313/.439/.427). He doesn't appear that he has a lot of power, but its possible he could grow into that as he gets older. He will be only 21 when the 2010 season begins.
The Mariners
I think that the Mariners did really well here. They gave up a prospect whose luster had faded (Aumont), and two young prospects who are realistically unlikely to help the Major League team in the next 3 years. They turned those players into another ace for the top of their pitching staff. The combination of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee at the top of their rotation really solidifies the Mariners' chances to win their division next year. When you add in the fact that the Angels have lost 2 major players on their team (Lackey, Figgins), and replaced them with very little as of yet, I really like the Mariners to win this division as of right now.
The Blue Jays
The Jays really felt like they had to move Halladay, or potentially lose him to free agency for just some draft picks. The return they got, in my opinion, is fair. Not a slam dunk, but fair. Wallace becomes the heir apparent to first base in my opinion, and speculation is already out there that the Jays could move Lyle Overbay. Wallace had a very good year between AA Springfield, AAA Memphis, and AAA Sacramento, posting a .293/.367/.455 line with 20 homers and 63 rbi. He appears to be a solid prospect, and should turn out to be a solid major league starter.
Kyle Drabek ended this season as probably the top pitching prospect in the Phillies organization. He finished 12-3, with a 3.19 era. He finished with 150 strikeouts against 50 walks in 158 innings pitched. He pitched in AA last season, and is likely to start the season in AAA. The Blue Jays realistically, don't need him to hit the majors for at least another season, with all the excellent starting pitchers that are already at or near the majors (Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Marc Rzepcynski, Jesse Litsch, Scott Richmond, David Purcey, Robert Ray). So it really just increases their depth in pitching.
Travis D'Arnaud is a very young catcher who spent the season at Single-A Lakewood. He posted a .255/.319/.419 line with 13 homers, 71 rbi, and 8 steals. I actually am not too familiar with him, so I went looking for a good profile of him, and found it here. After reading it, it appears he is considered to be a solid defensive catcher who is likely to stick at the position long term. A solid catching prospect overall.
Overall, I think that the Blue Jays did manage to address some specific positional needs in trading Halladay, and while this return isn't necessarily as high as it would have been had he been moved in July, they did well to get some solid prospects here.
The Athletics
For my hometown A's, I really like this trade. This makes me believe that the A's do not believe that Wallace could stick at 3B, where they really needed him. So they turn him into a top-tier outfield prospect. While I would normally be concerned about the fact that they already have a ton of outfielders at or near the major league level (Rajai Davis, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Ryan Sweeney all come to mind), I am inclined to believe that Taylor is better than most, if not all, of these players. The Athletics are always seeming to be short of power hitters, and Taylor definitely fits the bill. He posted a .320/.395/.544 line between AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley for the Phillies last year, along with 20 homers and 21 stolen bases. The movement of Wallace also makes Jake Fox (recently acquired from the Cubs) to be the main option at 3B besides the permanently injured (sad, sad I know) Eric Chavez. I am amazed that Billy Beane managed to make his way into this trade, and gave up a solid prospect for a better one in my opinion.
Overall Review
I think that overall, each team did well with this trade. The Mariners appear to be making at least a partial push to win now. The A's get a power bat that they desperately need. The Blue Jays get 3 solid prospects that will help their team to rebuild their farm system. The Phillies get an even better ace for the top of their pitching staff, and 3 high-end prospects as well. And somehow they got the Phillies to kick in $6 million bucks! It remains to be seen exactly how the prospects involved are going to turn out, and whether or not Halladay can stay healthy for the length of his new extension. But after trying to make sense of this for the past 24 hours, I can safely say that each team has improved themselves in at least some small manner.
CURRENT WINNER: Seattle Mariners
LONG-TERM WINNER: Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, December 14, 2009
Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Harold Baines
Baseball Reference.com Profile
Career Accomplishments
2866 hits
384 home runs
6 All Star Appearances
120 OPS+
11 20 home run seasons
3 100 rbi seasons
13 20+ double seasons
The Case for Baines
Baines was one of the top designated hitters of the 80's and 90's, amassing 2866 career hits, 488 doubles, 384 home runs, and a career line of .289/.356/.465. He made 6 All-Star appearances, and had a career OPS+ of 120.
The Case Against Baines
Baines became a full-time designated hitter after the 1987 season due to knee problems. Unfortunately for him, that was only a mere 6 seasons into his career. 384 homeruns is a fairly low total considering the era he played in.
Analysis
The first thing that stands out to me about Baines is the length of his career. I was very curious to see if his career totals were a product of prolonged excellence, or simply having a long career. So let's take a look at his single seasonnumbers and determine whether he had that period of dominance in him or not.
He appears to have shown some flashes of dominance, posting 3 straight seasons (1989-1991) with an OPS+ over 130. His best season appears to have been 1984, when he posted an OPS+ of 142, with a .304/.361/.541 with 29 homers, 94 rbi, 28 doubles, 10 triples. From 1982-1987, Baines had at least 50 extra base hits and 81 rbi. He also had 4 seasons with 10 outfield assists or more during that time.
Overall, I think that Baines had a very good career. 2800+ hits and 300+ home runs are definitely the hallmarks of a very good hitter. But I just don't see anything in either his season-to-season numbers or his career totals that really strike me as a dominant hitter, or worthy of the Hall of Fame.
MY VOTE: NO
Career Accomplishments
2866 hits
384 home runs
6 All Star Appearances
120 OPS+
11 20 home run seasons
3 100 rbi seasons
13 20+ double seasons
The Case for Baines
Baines was one of the top designated hitters of the 80's and 90's, amassing 2866 career hits, 488 doubles, 384 home runs, and a career line of .289/.356/.465. He made 6 All-Star appearances, and had a career OPS+ of 120.
The Case Against Baines
Baines became a full-time designated hitter after the 1987 season due to knee problems. Unfortunately for him, that was only a mere 6 seasons into his career. 384 homeruns is a fairly low total considering the era he played in.
Analysis
The first thing that stands out to me about Baines is the length of his career. I was very curious to see if his career totals were a product of prolonged excellence, or simply having a long career. So let's take a look at his single seasonnumbers and determine whether he had that period of dominance in him or not.
He appears to have shown some flashes of dominance, posting 3 straight seasons (1989-1991) with an OPS+ over 130. His best season appears to have been 1984, when he posted an OPS+ of 142, with a .304/.361/.541 with 29 homers, 94 rbi, 28 doubles, 10 triples. From 1982-1987, Baines had at least 50 extra base hits and 81 rbi. He also had 4 seasons with 10 outfield assists or more during that time.
Overall, I think that Baines had a very good career. 2800+ hits and 300+ home runs are definitely the hallmarks of a very good hitter. But I just don't see anything in either his season-to-season numbers or his career totals that really strike me as a dominant hitter, or worthy of the Hall of Fame.
MY VOTE: NO
Friday, December 11, 2009
Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Fred McGriff
Baseball Reference.Com Profile
Career Accomplishments
493 career home runs
2490 hits
OPS+ of 134
7 100 rbi seasons
12 90 rbi seasons
9 30 homer seasons (7 in a row)
.284/.377/.509
The Case for McGriff
The Crime Dog was an excellent run-producing slugger. He had 9 season with 30+ homers, 12 with 90+ rbi, and finished with 2490 hits and a career line of .284/.377/.509. He had 7 straight seasons with 30+ homers, and 2 different sets of 3 seasons with 100+ rbi in a row. (1991-1993, 1999-2001). He finished with a career postseason line of .303/.385/.532.
The Case Against McGriff
While McGriff was always a very solid slugger, he was never really viewed as an elite slugger. Falling 7 homers short of 500 in an era known for the long ball is probably not a good thing either. He only won 1 World Series championship. He faded in his last two seasons, dropping off and really only playing part time at best during that time.
Analysis
I am actually quite torn on this one. How much value do I place in 7 home runs? That really seems to be what his career totals come down to. McGriff was quite a power hitter, and 7 consecutive seasons of 30+ home runs is definitely an accomplishment. To me, it seems like McGriff's career numbers would be enough to get him into the Hall, providing he was elite for a period of at least 5 seasons.
So what do his year-to-year stats show me? McGriff hit 31+ home runs for 7 straight seasons (1988-1994), posted OPS+ of 143 or higher during each of the seasons as well. He drove in 92+ runs 6 of the 7 seasons, and never had an OPS below .890. I would qualify that as an elite stretch of his career.
These numbers compiled with his career totals lead me to believe that McGriff should be a Hall of Famer.
MY VOTE: YES
Career Accomplishments
493 career home runs
2490 hits
OPS+ of 134
7 100 rbi seasons
12 90 rbi seasons
9 30 homer seasons (7 in a row)
.284/.377/.509
The Case for McGriff
The Crime Dog was an excellent run-producing slugger. He had 9 season with 30+ homers, 12 with 90+ rbi, and finished with 2490 hits and a career line of .284/.377/.509. He had 7 straight seasons with 30+ homers, and 2 different sets of 3 seasons with 100+ rbi in a row. (1991-1993, 1999-2001). He finished with a career postseason line of .303/.385/.532.
The Case Against McGriff
While McGriff was always a very solid slugger, he was never really viewed as an elite slugger. Falling 7 homers short of 500 in an era known for the long ball is probably not a good thing either. He only won 1 World Series championship. He faded in his last two seasons, dropping off and really only playing part time at best during that time.
Analysis
I am actually quite torn on this one. How much value do I place in 7 home runs? That really seems to be what his career totals come down to. McGriff was quite a power hitter, and 7 consecutive seasons of 30+ home runs is definitely an accomplishment. To me, it seems like McGriff's career numbers would be enough to get him into the Hall, providing he was elite for a period of at least 5 seasons.
So what do his year-to-year stats show me? McGriff hit 31+ home runs for 7 straight seasons (1988-1994), posted OPS+ of 143 or higher during each of the seasons as well. He drove in 92+ runs 6 of the 7 seasons, and never had an OPS below .890. I would qualify that as an elite stretch of his career.
These numbers compiled with his career totals lead me to believe that McGriff should be a Hall of Famer.
MY VOTE: YES
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Trade Review - NYY/ARI/DET
New York Yankees receive CF Curtis Granderson (Tigers)
Arizona Diamondbacks receive P Edwin Jackson (Tigers) and P Ian Kennedy (Yankees)
Detroit Tigers receive P Max Scherzer (D'Backs), P Daniel Schlereth (D'Backs), CF Austin Jackson (Yankees), and RP Phil Coke (Yankees)
The Yankees
I really like this trade for the Yankees. The best player involved in the trade went to the Yankees, and they were able to acquire him by giving up pieces that they can either easily replace, or no longer need. Granderson is signed to a very team-friendly contract until 2013. He gives the Yankees a true center fielder, with excellent power and speed.
2009 was the 4th straight season where Granderson had at least 60 extra base hits. While his batting average has been falling, his slugging percentage has not dropped in comparison to the batting average. He posted an isolated Slugging (Slugging % minus Batting Average) of .250 in 2007, .214 in 2008, and .204 in 2009. So while his batting average appears to be falling each year, the power remains fairly constant. The fact that he is not hitting left handed pitchers very well is a concern (.183/.245/.239). His batting average on balls in play has been steadily dropping (.362 in 2007, .317 in 2008, .276 in 2009), so this may be at least a part of the reason for the drop in batting average. He still remains a commodity well worth the risk.
The Diamondbacks
I'm pretty confused here. Scherzer and Schlereth are both former 1st round picks, and definite fire-ballers. Scherzer posted an excellent strikeout rate last year (174 in 170 innings), but posted only a 9-11 record with a 4.12 ERA. He spent a portion of the year on the disabled list in July as well. Schlereth made 21 appearances last season, mostly as a left handed specialist. He struck out 22 in 18 1/3 innings. They received a high-ceiling starting pitcher in Jackson, who posted a 13-9 record last year and made the AL all-star team for the Tigers. Kennedy was injured most of last season, and only made one appearance in the majors.
The part I don't get here is that Jackson, while a bit more proven, is not necessarily a huge upgrade over Scherzer. And at this point, Schlereth and Kennedy are both very similar players. Neither has done a ton of things yet in the Majors, and neither really has been given too much of a chance yet. I have to believe that the Diamondbacks know something about both Scherzer and Schlereth that has yet to be seen, or at least that they believe that they are not necessarily going to be better than Jackson and Kennedy.
The Tigers
I really, really like this trade for the Tigers. They have decided that they need to cut payroll in some form, and take Granderson, a very good centerfielder who may price himself out of Detroit soon, and Jackson, a starting pitcher who had an excellent year last season, and turn them into Granderson's replacement (Jackson), a high-potential starting pitcher (Scherzer), and 2 at least useful power arms for their bullpen (Schlereth, Coke). Throw in that they control Jackson for 6 seasons, Scherzer for at least 4, Schlereth for at least 5, and Coke for at least 5, and they really did well to achieve their goal of cutting payroll AND making their team better at the same time.
Overall Review
I really like this trade. Each team addressed needs of their teams, although I still am not sure yet what the Diamondbacks believe that we don't see. It really doesn't bode well for the rest of the American League that the World Champion Yankees went out, took some pieces that they didn't really need for next year's team, and turned them into a better player than they had in center field.
CURRENT WINNER: New York Yankees
LONG-TERM WINNER: Detroit Tigers
Arizona Diamondbacks receive P Edwin Jackson (Tigers) and P Ian Kennedy (Yankees)
Detroit Tigers receive P Max Scherzer (D'Backs), P Daniel Schlereth (D'Backs), CF Austin Jackson (Yankees), and RP Phil Coke (Yankees)
The Yankees
I really like this trade for the Yankees. The best player involved in the trade went to the Yankees, and they were able to acquire him by giving up pieces that they can either easily replace, or no longer need. Granderson is signed to a very team-friendly contract until 2013. He gives the Yankees a true center fielder, with excellent power and speed.
2009 was the 4th straight season where Granderson had at least 60 extra base hits. While his batting average has been falling, his slugging percentage has not dropped in comparison to the batting average. He posted an isolated Slugging (Slugging % minus Batting Average) of .250 in 2007, .214 in 2008, and .204 in 2009. So while his batting average appears to be falling each year, the power remains fairly constant. The fact that he is not hitting left handed pitchers very well is a concern (.183/.245/.239). His batting average on balls in play has been steadily dropping (.362 in 2007, .317 in 2008, .276 in 2009), so this may be at least a part of the reason for the drop in batting average. He still remains a commodity well worth the risk.
The Diamondbacks
I'm pretty confused here. Scherzer and Schlereth are both former 1st round picks, and definite fire-ballers. Scherzer posted an excellent strikeout rate last year (174 in 170 innings), but posted only a 9-11 record with a 4.12 ERA. He spent a portion of the year on the disabled list in July as well. Schlereth made 21 appearances last season, mostly as a left handed specialist. He struck out 22 in 18 1/3 innings. They received a high-ceiling starting pitcher in Jackson, who posted a 13-9 record last year and made the AL all-star team for the Tigers. Kennedy was injured most of last season, and only made one appearance in the majors.
The part I don't get here is that Jackson, while a bit more proven, is not necessarily a huge upgrade over Scherzer. And at this point, Schlereth and Kennedy are both very similar players. Neither has done a ton of things yet in the Majors, and neither really has been given too much of a chance yet. I have to believe that the Diamondbacks know something about both Scherzer and Schlereth that has yet to be seen, or at least that they believe that they are not necessarily going to be better than Jackson and Kennedy.
The Tigers
I really, really like this trade for the Tigers. They have decided that they need to cut payroll in some form, and take Granderson, a very good centerfielder who may price himself out of Detroit soon, and Jackson, a starting pitcher who had an excellent year last season, and turn them into Granderson's replacement (Jackson), a high-potential starting pitcher (Scherzer), and 2 at least useful power arms for their bullpen (Schlereth, Coke). Throw in that they control Jackson for 6 seasons, Scherzer for at least 4, Schlereth for at least 5, and Coke for at least 5, and they really did well to achieve their goal of cutting payroll AND making their team better at the same time.
Overall Review
I really like this trade. Each team addressed needs of their teams, although I still am not sure yet what the Diamondbacks believe that we don't see. It really doesn't bode well for the rest of the American League that the World Champion Yankees went out, took some pieces that they didn't really need for next year's team, and turned them into a better player than they had in center field.
CURRENT WINNER: New York Yankees
LONG-TERM WINNER: Detroit Tigers
Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Edgar Martinez
Player Profile on Baseball Reference.com
Notable Career Accomplishments
2247 hits
.312 batting average
.418 on base percentage
.515 slugging percentage
OPS+ of 147
7 All-Star Appearances
5 Silver Slugger Awards
6 100+ rbi seasons
The Case for Martinez
Martinez was 1 of the 2 dominant players at his position for the majority of his career. His career numbers all compare favorably on a year-to-year basis with other similar players (ie players who did not start playing full-time until age 27 or later). His career OPS+ tells me that he was an excellent player, with some elite years mixed in. He also had OPS+ seasons of 150 or greater 7 times.
The Case Against Martinez
Martinez was a full-time position player only until 1995, when knee injuries forced him to be a designated hitter full-time. He was never much of a homerun hitter, only finishing with more than 30 in a season once. Due to his injuries and late arrival to the majors, his career totals are not particularly impressive. Also, he was rarely, if ever, the best player on his team.
Analysis
Personally, I think that the argument that designated hitters should not be in the Hall of Fame is a load of crap. The rules of the game clearly consider the designated hitter to be an important position, not to mention a valid one.
So how do his career numbers stack up? He had 2247 hits and an excellent career line (.312/.418/.515). All three of these numbers point to prolonged excellence. His career OPS+ (147) tells me that he was an elite hitter and slugger. While I do think extra credit can be given to hitters who can also field, I don't think fair to judge him as necessarily someone who cannot field.
Then we are left to look at how dominant a hitter he truly was. From 1995-2001, a span of 7 seasons, Martinez' lowest OPS+ was 152, never hit below .306, had at least 23 homers and 86 rbi (driving in over 102 in the other 6 seasons), and slugging .543 or better every year. I would definitely consider that to be a dominant stretch, and coupled with his career numbers, leads me to believe he is a Hall of Famer.
MY VOTE: YES
Notable Career Accomplishments
2247 hits
.312 batting average
.418 on base percentage
.515 slugging percentage
OPS+ of 147
7 All-Star Appearances
5 Silver Slugger Awards
6 100+ rbi seasons
The Case for Martinez
Martinez was 1 of the 2 dominant players at his position for the majority of his career. His career numbers all compare favorably on a year-to-year basis with other similar players (ie players who did not start playing full-time until age 27 or later). His career OPS+ tells me that he was an excellent player, with some elite years mixed in. He also had OPS+ seasons of 150 or greater 7 times.
The Case Against Martinez
Martinez was a full-time position player only until 1995, when knee injuries forced him to be a designated hitter full-time. He was never much of a homerun hitter, only finishing with more than 30 in a season once. Due to his injuries and late arrival to the majors, his career totals are not particularly impressive. Also, he was rarely, if ever, the best player on his team.
Analysis
Personally, I think that the argument that designated hitters should not be in the Hall of Fame is a load of crap. The rules of the game clearly consider the designated hitter to be an important position, not to mention a valid one.
So how do his career numbers stack up? He had 2247 hits and an excellent career line (.312/.418/.515). All three of these numbers point to prolonged excellence. His career OPS+ (147) tells me that he was an elite hitter and slugger. While I do think extra credit can be given to hitters who can also field, I don't think fair to judge him as necessarily someone who cannot field.
Then we are left to look at how dominant a hitter he truly was. From 1995-2001, a span of 7 seasons, Martinez' lowest OPS+ was 152, never hit below .306, had at least 23 homers and 86 rbi (driving in over 102 in the other 6 seasons), and slugging .543 or better every year. I would definitely consider that to be a dominant stretch, and coupled with his career numbers, leads me to believe he is a Hall of Famer.
MY VOTE: YES
Monday, December 7, 2009
Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Mark McGwire
Player Profile - Baseball Reference.com
Career Accomplishments
583 homers
OPS+ of 162
100+ rbi seasons: 7
40 homer seasons: 6
.263/.394/.588
The Case for McGwire
McGwire had some of the most dominant seasons a slugger can have. He hit 49 homers his rookie year, and from 1996-1999 was other-worldly (52, 58, 70, 66). He had 7 seasons with an OPS over 1.000 (1993, 1995-2000). He is currently 8th all-time with 583 homers, 9th all-time with a .588 career slugging percentage, and 12th all time with an OPS+ of 162. And of course the 70 homer record-breaking season in 1998.
The Case Against McGwire
McGwire only hit .263 in his career, a reasonable average but nothing particularly special. He was not known as a particularly good fielder, and missed substantial time due to injuries. And then of course there are the elephants in the room: The implications related to his use of androstenedione; the questions regarding whether he used steroids during his career; his testimony before Congress regarding performance enhancing drugs in 2003.
Analysis
It is extremely difficult to get past that homerun total. 583 is good for 8th all time, and was 5th when he retired. McGwire's numbers show him to be a hitter with an excellent eye and monumental power. One of my criteria has been whether a player was truly excellent for a sustained period, or simply above-average for a longer period. It is my opinion that McGwire represents a truly excellent player, specifically from 1996-2000, a span of 5 seasons.
Realistically, I don't believe it was ever going to be Big Mac's numbers which concerned voters. While his use of andro was within the rules of the game when he was taking it, his unwillingness to "talk about the past" while testifying to Congress is his bell which cannot be unrung. However, without proof positive, I simply do not see how we can judge him on things we simply do not know for certain.
There is always a lot of talk about judging was is good for the integrity of the game. But I just cannot see how it is that we as fans can judge him any differently because he was receiving more media coverage. Would we have had the same disdain if we received as much information about Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, or any of the other scandals of the early years of baseball?
I believe that McGwire represents one of the most dominant power hitters in an era that is filled with them. And without proof or an admission that he cheated, I think we have to look at his career based on the breadth of his performance. And that performance was excellent.
MY VOTE: YES
Career Accomplishments
583 homers
OPS+ of 162
100+ rbi seasons: 7
40 homer seasons: 6
.263/.394/.588
The Case for McGwire
McGwire had some of the most dominant seasons a slugger can have. He hit 49 homers his rookie year, and from 1996-1999 was other-worldly (52, 58, 70, 66). He had 7 seasons with an OPS over 1.000 (1993, 1995-2000). He is currently 8th all-time with 583 homers, 9th all-time with a .588 career slugging percentage, and 12th all time with an OPS+ of 162. And of course the 70 homer record-breaking season in 1998.
The Case Against McGwire
McGwire only hit .263 in his career, a reasonable average but nothing particularly special. He was not known as a particularly good fielder, and missed substantial time due to injuries. And then of course there are the elephants in the room: The implications related to his use of androstenedione; the questions regarding whether he used steroids during his career; his testimony before Congress regarding performance enhancing drugs in 2003.
Analysis
It is extremely difficult to get past that homerun total. 583 is good for 8th all time, and was 5th when he retired. McGwire's numbers show him to be a hitter with an excellent eye and monumental power. One of my criteria has been whether a player was truly excellent for a sustained period, or simply above-average for a longer period. It is my opinion that McGwire represents a truly excellent player, specifically from 1996-2000, a span of 5 seasons.
Realistically, I don't believe it was ever going to be Big Mac's numbers which concerned voters. While his use of andro was within the rules of the game when he was taking it, his unwillingness to "talk about the past" while testifying to Congress is his bell which cannot be unrung. However, without proof positive, I simply do not see how we can judge him on things we simply do not know for certain.
There is always a lot of talk about judging was is good for the integrity of the game. But I just cannot see how it is that we as fans can judge him any differently because he was receiving more media coverage. Would we have had the same disdain if we received as much information about Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, or any of the other scandals of the early years of baseball?
I believe that McGwire represents one of the most dominant power hitters in an era that is filled with them. And without proof or an admission that he cheated, I think we have to look at his career based on the breadth of his performance. And that performance was excellent.
MY VOTE: YES
Friday, December 4, 2009
Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Jack Morris
Player Profile on Baseball Reference.com
Notable Career Accomplishments
254-186 record
3.90 career ERA
ERA+ of 105
175 complete games
20 win seasons - 3
World Series Championships - 3
The Case for Morris
The first thing I think of when I hear Jack Morris' name is that he was the big game pitcher. You wanted him to start Game 1, and you wanted him for Game 7 as well. He pitched for 18 seasons, 14 of them with the Detroit Tigers. 254 wins, 175 complete games, 2478 strikeouts, and those 3 championships (1984, 1991, 1992) all portray him very well, especially the Game 7 10 inning shutout he threw to clinch the series victory in 1991.
The Case Against Morris
A career ERA+ (ERA adjusted against league average) of 105 tells us he was really only about 5% better than league average over the span of his career. A strikeout rate of 5.8 per 9 innings would hardly be considered dominant, as would having 186 losses as well. His 3.90 era over his career, while very good, seems high for a period in baseball where runs were not being scored at a rapid rate.
Analysis
While his big game reputation and success in those games are definitely a strong point in his favor, I don't think he was in enough of those types of games for that alone to warrant his selection. So I am forced to look at the rest of the body of his work. A 3.90 ERA and an ERA+ of 105 both cause me some concern. Both of these numbers tell me that he was an above-average pitcher, but not necessarily an elite one. Throw in his lower strikeout-per-9 inning rate, and it really shows me a pitcher who was not necessarily a dominant one.
This leaves me to look at his year-to-year statistics to see if he had prolonged periods of excellence. From 1983-1988, he had:
MY VOTE: NO
Notable Career Accomplishments
254-186 record
3.90 career ERA
ERA+ of 105
175 complete games
20 win seasons - 3
World Series Championships - 3
The Case for Morris
The first thing I think of when I hear Jack Morris' name is that he was the big game pitcher. You wanted him to start Game 1, and you wanted him for Game 7 as well. He pitched for 18 seasons, 14 of them with the Detroit Tigers. 254 wins, 175 complete games, 2478 strikeouts, and those 3 championships (1984, 1991, 1992) all portray him very well, especially the Game 7 10 inning shutout he threw to clinch the series victory in 1991.
The Case Against Morris
A career ERA+ (ERA adjusted against league average) of 105 tells us he was really only about 5% better than league average over the span of his career. A strikeout rate of 5.8 per 9 innings would hardly be considered dominant, as would having 186 losses as well. His 3.90 era over his career, while very good, seems high for a period in baseball where runs were not being scored at a rapid rate.
Analysis
While his big game reputation and success in those games are definitely a strong point in his favor, I don't think he was in enough of those types of games for that alone to warrant his selection. So I am forced to look at the rest of the body of his work. A 3.90 ERA and an ERA+ of 105 both cause me some concern. Both of these numbers tell me that he was an above-average pitcher, but not necessarily an elite one. Throw in his lower strikeout-per-9 inning rate, and it really shows me a pitcher who was not necessarily a dominant one.
This leaves me to look at his year-to-year statistics to see if he had prolonged periods of excellence. From 1983-1988, he had:
- an ERA under 3.40: 4 times
- 15 wins or more: 7 times
- 200 strikeouts: 3 times
- ERA+ of 120 or higher: 3 times
- 10+ complete games: 6 times
MY VOTE: NO
Hall of Fame Eligible Players Review
I'm starting a new series today, and I'll be going over the list of players on this year's ballot for the Hall of Fame, and analyzing the ones who I believe have at least a reasonable chance of being inducted. The complete ballot can be viewed here.
Here's the schedule:
12/4: Jack Morris
12/7: Mark McGwire
12/9: Edgar Martinez
12/11: Fred McGriff
12/14: Harold Baines
12/16: Barry Larkin
12/18: Bert Blyleven
12/21: Roberto Alomar
12/23: Andre Dawson
12/25: Tim Raines
12/28: My Hall of Fame Ballot
Here's the schedule:
12/4: Jack Morris
12/7: Mark McGwire
12/9: Edgar Martinez
12/11: Fred McGriff
12/14: Harold Baines
12/16: Barry Larkin
12/18: Bert Blyleven
12/21: Roberto Alomar
12/23: Andre Dawson
12/25: Tim Raines
12/28: My Hall of Fame Ballot
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Roster Rules Review and the Next Set of Posts
With my post about trades and the trade deadline, I've finished up my Roster Rules series.
Starting Friday, I am going to be reviewing some of the top candidates for the Writers' Ballot for the Hall of Fame.
Starting Friday, I am going to be reviewing some of the top candidates for the Writers' Ballot for the Hall of Fame.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Roster Rules - Trades, the Trade Deadlines, and Waivers
A trade, essentially, is the movement between 2 or more teams of player contracts. Teams can make trades with any team they choose, involving any players that they choose, but there are some limitations:
There are 2 trade deadlines:
Waivers
Players are placed on waivers in the period between July 31st and August 31st, with very few exceptions. Teams are allowed to make a claim to any player placed on waivers, and based on how many teams claim the player will determine how the claim is rewarded:
Once a waiver claim has been awarded, the team with the player can try to negotiate a trade with the team that was awarded the claim.
Example:
Alex Rios was placed on waivers last season during the month of August. A claim was placed on him, and this gave the Blue Jays three choices:
Sources:
ESPN.Com article - Waiver Rules
- Teams cannot trade players drafted in the Rule 4 draft for 1 year from the date of the draft.
- Players can have no-trade clauses added to their contracts, generally only as a part of a new contract.
- Players can earn no-trade rights by having 10 years of service time in the major leagues, and having 5 years of service time with their current team.
- Players can waive their no-trade rights to facilitate a trade if they so desire.
- Teams can send monetary considerations as a part of the trade. Any amount of $1 million in cash must be approved by the commissioner's office.
- Teams can also include a "Player to be Named Later". Generally, this is a player who has already been determined by the teams involved, but cannot be included for various reasons.
- Free agents who sign a contract cannot be traded until after May 1st of the first season of the contract.
There are 2 trade deadlines:
- July 31st: The Non-Waiver Trade Deadline
- August 31st: The Postseason Roster Trade Deadline
Waivers
Players are placed on waivers in the period between July 31st and August 31st, with very few exceptions. Teams are allowed to make a claim to any player placed on waivers, and based on how many teams claim the player will determine how the claim is rewarded:
- If no one claims a player, they are said to have "cleared waivers", and can be traded to any team
- If only one team claims the player, that team is awarded the claim.
- If more than one team claims the player, the team with the worst record in their own league is offered the claim.
Once a waiver claim has been awarded, the team with the player can try to negotiate a trade with the team that was awarded the claim.
Example:
Alex Rios was placed on waivers last season during the month of August. A claim was placed on him, and this gave the Blue Jays three choices:
- Pull him back off of waivers, and not allow him to be traded without exposing him to waivers a second time.
- Negotiate with the team that won the claim (The White Sox) to try and get something in return for him via trade
- Simply allow the other team to have the player, without any return. The new team would be responsible for the entirety of their contract, and the old team would be off the hook for any of it.
Sources:
ESPN.Com article - Waiver Rules
Roster Rules - The Rule 5 Draft
Yesterday, I talked about the Rule 4 Amateur Draft. Today I move on to the Rule 5 Draft.
The Rule 5 draft is done every year in December. Only certain players are eligible for this draft:
There is also a minor league portion, where players in A or AA can be drafted, and must be kept in AAA for the whole season.
Notable examples of players found via this draft: Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria
Sources:
Wikipedia
The Rule 5 draft is done every year in December. Only certain players are eligible for this draft:
- Players must not be on any team's 40 man roster. There is a deadline for this roster to lock.
- Players who signed at age 19 or older are eligible if they have been in the organization for 4+ years.
- Players who signed before age 19 are eligible if they have been in the organization for 5+ years.
There is also a minor league portion, where players in A or AA can be drafted, and must be kept in AAA for the whole season.
Notable examples of players found via this draft: Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria
Sources:
Wikipedia
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Roster Rules - The Rule 4 Amateur Draft
The Rule 4 amateur draft is held each year in June. It is 50 rounds long, and also includes the compensatory picks related to free agency. The draft order is set based on the previous season's win-loss record, with ties being broken by the team's win-loss record for the season prior to that.
Eligible Players:
Any players who have not signed a contract who fit the following criteria:
If a player does not sign by the end of their window, their age will determine when they will be eligible to be drafted again. For players drafted out of high school, they will not be eligible until they meet the requirements for college players. For college players, they will be eligible in the following year's draft. Notable examples in previous years include Aaron Crow, and Tanner Scheppers.
Each year, the office of the Commissioner gives out guidelines for what the signing bonus of each pick in the draft should be. The logic is that the best player available should be the top selection, and receive the highest signing bonus. This is also known as the slotting system. However, many teams do not adhere to it, as it is not a requirement to do so.
Analysis:
Since players drafted generally take between 2 to 4 years to make an impact at the major league level, organizations try to minimize their risk at the draft. This can include drafting players based on signability rather than talent, drafting lower ceiling players with a higher potential to reach their ceiling, and avoiding talented players with makeup concerns. This can lead to some unusual choices from time to time.
The slotting system does not help teams to land the top players available all the time, since it is only a suggestion and not a requirement. A great example was Rick Porcello. When Porcello was eligible to be drafted, he was widely viewed as a top-5 draft pick. However, knowledge of his contract demands became public, and many teams shied away from him due to concerns about signability. Since he was a high school student, if he didn't sign, he could simply go to college, and wait 2 years to be drafted again. As a result, he fell to the end of the first round, when he was drafted by the Detroit Tigers, and received a contract well over the slot suggested by the commissioner's office. The Tigers were willing to pay him what it took to get him signed. The reason that this has become a bigger problem is that it works, as evidenced by the season that Porcello had in 2009. If he had not signed with the Tigers, he would have been eligible to be drafted this coming season in 2010. The Tigers' willingness to pay Porcello what he believed he was worth impacted this season, as well as future ones as well.
Also, the fact that international players are not subject to the draft has become a point of contention. All international players who have not signed contracts are considered to be free agents, and a player can be signed after June 2nd of the year that they turned 16. As a result, teams that can offer better development opportunities and better money will generally get these players, leaving the other teams out of the process.
The Rule 4 draft is going to be a hot topic of discussion when the next collective bargaining agreement negotiations begin, and could very well see some large-scale changes with wide-ranging impacts on the market for players.
Sources:
Wikipedia
Sons of Sam Horn
Eligible Players:
Any players who have not signed a contract who fit the following criteria:
- Resident of the U.S., Canada, or any U.S. territory
- They must have graduated from high school, but not attended college
- They must have attended a 4 year college and be either 21, or in their junior or senior year.
- They must have attended a community or junior college.
If a player does not sign by the end of their window, their age will determine when they will be eligible to be drafted again. For players drafted out of high school, they will not be eligible until they meet the requirements for college players. For college players, they will be eligible in the following year's draft. Notable examples in previous years include Aaron Crow, and Tanner Scheppers.
Each year, the office of the Commissioner gives out guidelines for what the signing bonus of each pick in the draft should be. The logic is that the best player available should be the top selection, and receive the highest signing bonus. This is also known as the slotting system. However, many teams do not adhere to it, as it is not a requirement to do so.
Analysis:
Since players drafted generally take between 2 to 4 years to make an impact at the major league level, organizations try to minimize their risk at the draft. This can include drafting players based on signability rather than talent, drafting lower ceiling players with a higher potential to reach their ceiling, and avoiding talented players with makeup concerns. This can lead to some unusual choices from time to time.
The slotting system does not help teams to land the top players available all the time, since it is only a suggestion and not a requirement. A great example was Rick Porcello. When Porcello was eligible to be drafted, he was widely viewed as a top-5 draft pick. However, knowledge of his contract demands became public, and many teams shied away from him due to concerns about signability. Since he was a high school student, if he didn't sign, he could simply go to college, and wait 2 years to be drafted again. As a result, he fell to the end of the first round, when he was drafted by the Detroit Tigers, and received a contract well over the slot suggested by the commissioner's office. The Tigers were willing to pay him what it took to get him signed. The reason that this has become a bigger problem is that it works, as evidenced by the season that Porcello had in 2009. If he had not signed with the Tigers, he would have been eligible to be drafted this coming season in 2010. The Tigers' willingness to pay Porcello what he believed he was worth impacted this season, as well as future ones as well.
Also, the fact that international players are not subject to the draft has become a point of contention. All international players who have not signed contracts are considered to be free agents, and a player can be signed after June 2nd of the year that they turned 16. As a result, teams that can offer better development opportunities and better money will generally get these players, leaving the other teams out of the process.
The Rule 4 draft is going to be a hot topic of discussion when the next collective bargaining agreement negotiations begin, and could very well see some large-scale changes with wide-ranging impacts on the market for players.
Sources:
Wikipedia
Sons of Sam Horn
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Roster Rules - Arbitration
Arbitration is something that was negotiated into the collective bargaining agreement in order to help players who were not eligible for free agency to be paid similarly to players who were eligible.
How it works:
Essentially, both the player and the team submit a single figure, and an independent arbitrator looks at both cases, and chooses one of the numbers. The arbitrator is not allowed to choose any number other than one of the two that were submitted.
Each case is based on similar players. Both the team and the player will build their cases around what they view as "comparable players". Generally this will include service time, a player's accomplishments, and other improvements/deficiencies that a player has.
Who is eligible:
Any player with at least 3 years of service time can qualify for arbitration. In addition, the top 17% of all 2nd year players (in terms of service time) will also qualify as "Super-2's".
Any free agent can be offered arbitration, but unlike players that are not free agents, can either accept or decline arbitration. If they accept, they are subject to the decision made, and are no longer free agents.
Another thing to remember with arbitration is that it is related to free agent compensation.
[Edit]
MLB Trade Rumors has put together another great post about this topic as well.
How it works:
Essentially, both the player and the team submit a single figure, and an independent arbitrator looks at both cases, and chooses one of the numbers. The arbitrator is not allowed to choose any number other than one of the two that were submitted.
Each case is based on similar players. Both the team and the player will build their cases around what they view as "comparable players". Generally this will include service time, a player's accomplishments, and other improvements/deficiencies that a player has.
Who is eligible:
Any player with at least 3 years of service time can qualify for arbitration. In addition, the top 17% of all 2nd year players (in terms of service time) will also qualify as "Super-2's".
Any free agent can be offered arbitration, but unlike players that are not free agents, can either accept or decline arbitration. If they accept, they are subject to the decision made, and are no longer free agents.
Another thing to remember with arbitration is that it is related to free agent compensation.
[Edit]
MLB Trade Rumors has put together another great post about this topic as well.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
NL MVP in Review
Without much surprise, Albert Pujols was announced as a repeat winner of the NL MVP award. Unanimous this time, Pujols led the National League in homeruns (47), runs (124), OBP (.443), slugging (.658), total bases (374), and intentional walks (44). This while also hitting .327, with 135 rbis, 45 doubles, and almost twice as many walks as strikeouts (115 to 64).
Voting (First)
Pujols - 448 (32)
Hanley Ramirez - 233
Ryan Howard - 217
Prince Fielder - 203
Troy Tulowitzki - 172
Andre Ethier - 113
Pablo Sandoval - 89
Chase Utley - 84
Derrek Lee - 66
Matt Kemp - 49
Ryan Braun - 43
No real issue with the voting, as a lot of top players for this season ended up at the top of the voting. Further down the voting, I always wonder when I see things like this:
Jeremy Affeldt - 1
Now, Affeldt had a very good year. And he was definitely of some good value to his team. But the 10th most valuable player in the National League? That seems like a bit of a stretch to me.
Later today, I should have an article up about Pujols in the context of history.
Voting (First)
Pujols - 448 (32)
Hanley Ramirez - 233
Ryan Howard - 217
Prince Fielder - 203
Troy Tulowitzki - 172
Andre Ethier - 113
Pablo Sandoval - 89
Chase Utley - 84
Derrek Lee - 66
Matt Kemp - 49
Ryan Braun - 43
No real issue with the voting, as a lot of top players for this season ended up at the top of the voting. Further down the voting, I always wonder when I see things like this:
Jeremy Affeldt - 1
Now, Affeldt had a very good year. And he was definitely of some good value to his team. But the 10th most valuable player in the National League? That seems like a bit of a stretch to me.
Later today, I should have an article up about Pujols in the context of history.
Monday, November 23, 2009
AL MVP in Review
The Baseball Writers announced their choice for the American League MVP today: Joe Mauer
The writers really nailed this one down, as Mauer went completely nuts this season. Despite missing nearly a month, he still lead the AL in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. He set career highs in homeruns (28), rbis (96), hits (191), batting average (.365), OBP (.444), slugging % (.587), OPS (1.031). And all of this in addition to helping to guide the young Twins pitching staff, and leading the Twins to a division title.
The voting:
Mauer - 387 (27 first place)
Mark Teixeira - 225
Derek Jeter - 193
Miguel Cabrera - 171 (1)
Kendry Morales - 170
Kevin Youkilis - 150
Jason Bay - 78
Ben Zobrist - 34
Ichiro - 33
Chone Figgins - 31
I'm really happy with this result. Teixeira, Jeter, Cabrera, and Morales all had really great years, but in my opinion there is simply no way that the Twins have a .500 record, let along win their division without Mauer. I am really looking forward to hearing what he gets for his next contract, which could conceivably be in the $200 million range, and what he will do next season in a full season.
The writers really nailed this one down, as Mauer went completely nuts this season. Despite missing nearly a month, he still lead the AL in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. He set career highs in homeruns (28), rbis (96), hits (191), batting average (.365), OBP (.444), slugging % (.587), OPS (1.031). And all of this in addition to helping to guide the young Twins pitching staff, and leading the Twins to a division title.
The voting:
Mauer - 387 (27 first place)
Mark Teixeira - 225
Derek Jeter - 193
Miguel Cabrera - 171 (1)
Kendry Morales - 170
Kevin Youkilis - 150
Jason Bay - 78
Ben Zobrist - 34
Ichiro - 33
Chone Figgins - 31
I'm really happy with this result. Teixeira, Jeter, Cabrera, and Morales all had really great years, but in my opinion there is simply no way that the Twins have a .500 record, let along win their division without Mauer. I am really looking forward to hearing what he gets for his next contract, which could conceivably be in the $200 million range, and what he will do next season in a full season.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Roster Rules - Free Agency
Free Agency actually started this morning at 12 AM EST, so we'll go over that topic next.
After a player has completed 6 full seasons in the major leagues, they can file for free agency. Free agency allows a player to negotiate with any team they chose. A player can also become a free agent if they are released by their previous team. Since major league contracts are guaranteed, if a player is released, any team that signs him during the remainder of that contract will only be required to pay the player the minimum salary, and his old team will be on the hook for the rest.
Free Agents may be subject to compensation as well, under the following system:
All players at the end of each season are ranked by the Elias Sports Bureau. They are broken into groups by league, and by similar positional group:
Catchers
1B-OF-DH
2B-3B-SS
Starting Pitchers
Relief Pitchers
MLB Trade Rumors has a breakdown of exactly what they look at for each player. Keith Law of ESPN.com also went into this in quite a bit of detail.
What the end result of this process is that each player is given a ranking:
Type A: Top 30% of their position group
Type B: Top 50%, but outside the top 30% of their position group
All Others: Bottom 50%
Type A free agents, if signed by a different team, earn for their previous team compensation in the form of:
The key with any compensation is this: The player's previous team must offer the player arbitration by the deadline (usually in the first week of December), or the player must sign prior to December 1st. If neither of these conditions are met, then there is no compensation.
MLB Trade Rumors also has some examples about this as well.
After a player has completed 6 full seasons in the major leagues, they can file for free agency. Free agency allows a player to negotiate with any team they chose. A player can also become a free agent if they are released by their previous team. Since major league contracts are guaranteed, if a player is released, any team that signs him during the remainder of that contract will only be required to pay the player the minimum salary, and his old team will be on the hook for the rest.
Free Agents may be subject to compensation as well, under the following system:
All players at the end of each season are ranked by the Elias Sports Bureau. They are broken into groups by league, and by similar positional group:
Catchers
1B-OF-DH
2B-3B-SS
Starting Pitchers
Relief Pitchers
MLB Trade Rumors has a breakdown of exactly what they look at for each player. Keith Law of ESPN.com also went into this in quite a bit of detail.
What the end result of this process is that each player is given a ranking:
Type A: Top 30% of their position group
Type B: Top 50%, but outside the top 30% of their position group
All Others: Bottom 50%
Type A free agents, if signed by a different team, earn for their previous team compensation in the form of:
- The first round draft pick of the team that signed the player (if the pick is #16 or higher), OR
- The second round draft pick of the team that signed the player (if their first round pick is from picks #1 through #15), AND
- A "sandwich" pick in between the 1st and 2nd rounds.
- These are all in the June Rule 4 draft. (To be discussed in a later post)
- A "sandwich" pick in between the 1st and 2nd rounds.
The key with any compensation is this: The player's previous team must offer the player arbitration by the deadline (usually in the first week of December), or the player must sign prior to December 1st. If neither of these conditions are met, then there is no compensation.
MLB Trade Rumors also has some examples about this as well.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Roster Rules - The Disabled List
The Disabled list is a fairly basic concept. When a player gets hurt, and he is going to be hurt for an extended period of time, you move the player onto the disabled list. There are two different lists, the 15 day, and the 60 day.
15-day Disabled List
This is used to allow teams to bring a player onto the 25 man roster. Any player placed on the 15-day disabled list remains on the 40 man roster. A player can be moved from the 15-day to the 60-day, but not vice-versa.
60-day Disabled List
This is used to allow teams to bring a player onto the 40 man roster. A roster spot is freed up by placing a player on the 60 day disabled list.
In both cases, a player may be placed on either list retroactively up to 10 days into the past, providing that they have not appeared in a game since. Also, players are required to be on the list for the full amount of time (either 15 or 60 days).
Players may also be sent down to the minor leagues for rehabilitation, but there are limits of 20 days for position players and 30 days for pitchers.
Sources:
Wikipedia
15-day Disabled List
This is used to allow teams to bring a player onto the 25 man roster. Any player placed on the 15-day disabled list remains on the 40 man roster. A player can be moved from the 15-day to the 60-day, but not vice-versa.
60-day Disabled List
This is used to allow teams to bring a player onto the 40 man roster. A roster spot is freed up by placing a player on the 60 day disabled list.
In both cases, a player may be placed on either list retroactively up to 10 days into the past, providing that they have not appeared in a game since. Also, players are required to be on the list for the full amount of time (either 15 or 60 days).
Players may also be sent down to the minor leagues for rehabilitation, but there are limits of 20 days for position players and 30 days for pitchers.
Sources:
Wikipedia
Roster Rules - The 40 man roster
Yesterday, I discussed the basics of the 25 man roster. Today, we'll go into the 40 man roster.
The 40 man roster is considered to be the protected roster.
Players on the 40 man roster include:
Some other terms related to the 40 man roster:
Recalling a player - Moving a player already on the 40 man roster to the 25 man roster.
Purchasing a player's contract - Adding a player to the 25 man roster that has not been added to the 40 man roster. This player would also be automatically added to the 40 man roster as well.
Designated for Assignment - This is essentially a holding place for a player that is being removed from either the 25 man or 40 man roster. It gives the team 10 days to either trade the player, or put him on waivers.
Options - Once a player has been added to the 40 man roster, they can be freely moved between the minors and the majors for 3 different seasons following that. Some notes:
This roster is also used starting September 1st, and any player listed on the 40 man roster can be used in a game for the month of September. Players on the 40 man roster, but not on the 25 man roster on August 31st, are not eligible for postseason play.
The 40 man roster is probably the most important piece of information for a general manager. It helps protect players from other teams, allows them to draw on a base of players for their team, and can potentially be a financially driven item as well.
Sources:
Wikipedia
Brewerfan.Net
The 40 man roster is considered to be the protected roster.
Players on the 40 man roster include:
- All players on the 25 man roster
- All players on the 15 day disabled list
- Selected minor leaguers
- If they signed their initial contract by the age of 18, after 5 seasons in the minor leagues
- If they signed their initial contract at age 19 or older, after 4 seasons in the minor leagues
Some other terms related to the 40 man roster:
Recalling a player - Moving a player already on the 40 man roster to the 25 man roster.
Purchasing a player's contract - Adding a player to the 25 man roster that has not been added to the 40 man roster. This player would also be automatically added to the 40 man roster as well.
Designated for Assignment - This is essentially a holding place for a player that is being removed from either the 25 man or 40 man roster. It gives the team 10 days to either trade the player, or put him on waivers.
Options - Once a player has been added to the 40 man roster, they can be freely moved between the minors and the majors for 3 different seasons following that. Some notes:
- If a player does not get sent down during a season, an option is not used.
- If a player is sent down to the minors during spring training, an option is used.
- If a player uses all 3 of his options, he must be put on waivers, and clear in order to be sent to the minor leagues.
This roster is also used starting September 1st, and any player listed on the 40 man roster can be used in a game for the month of September. Players on the 40 man roster, but not on the 25 man roster on August 31st, are not eligible for postseason play.
The 40 man roster is probably the most important piece of information for a general manager. It helps protect players from other teams, allows them to draw on a base of players for their team, and can potentially be a financially driven item as well.
Sources:
Wikipedia
Brewerfan.Net
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Roster Rules - The 25 man roster
Each team has both a 25 man roster, and a 40 man roster. I'm going to start with discussing the 25 man roster today.
The 25 man roster is also known as the active roster. These, simply put, are the players you can use in a live game. Any player that you wish to use MUST be on the active roster. The key with this roster is this: If you wish to have a player available to play, you must get them on this roster. There are a few ways to get players onto it:
- Place a player on the disabled list (either 15 or 60 day)
- Release a player
- Send a player to the minor leagues (on an option)
Any player that a team wishes to use in a playoff game must also be on the 25 man roster as of August 31st each year.
All players which are on the 25 man roster are automatically on the 40 man roster as well.
Sources:
Wikipedia
The 25 man roster is also known as the active roster. These, simply put, are the players you can use in a live game. Any player that you wish to use MUST be on the active roster. The key with this roster is this: If you wish to have a player available to play, you must get them on this roster. There are a few ways to get players onto it:
- Place a player on the disabled list (either 15 or 60 day)
- Release a player
- Send a player to the minor leagues (on an option)
Any player that a team wishes to use in a playoff game must also be on the 25 man roster as of August 31st each year.
All players which are on the 25 man roster are automatically on the 40 man roster as well.
Sources:
Wikipedia
Roster Rules Series
As we enter the free agency period, you're likely to hear a lot of terms about transactions that you may or may not be very familiar with. Over the coming posts, I am going to go over a lot of the concepts involved with major and minor league transactions, and the impact that they can have. Some of them are pretty straightforward, and some are confusing. I am hoping to shed some light on those ones.
- The 25 man roster
- The 40 man roster
- The Disabled List
- Free Agency and Free Agent Compensation
- Arbitration
- The Rule 4 draft (June Amateur)
- The Rule 5 draft (December)
- Trades, the Trade Deadlines and Waivers
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
AL Cy Young Award in Review
It was just announced that Zack Greinke has won the 2009 AL Cy Young award. Let's take a look at each of the players receiving votes, and how their seasons went.
Voting (first place)
Greinke: 134 (25)
Felix Hernandez: 80 (2)
Justin Verlander: 14 (1)
C.C. Sabathia: 13
Roy Halladay: 11
Zack Greinke
Zack posted an extremely dominant season, starting out 6-0 and never looking back. He finished the season with 16 wins (the least of any Cy Young award winner ever), a 2.16 era, 6 complete games, 3 shutouts, 242 strikeouts, and a 1.07 whip. A dominant season by any stretch, and most likely there would have been no doubt about this if he had played in a major market, or for a contending team.
Felix Hernandez
King Felix probably would have won a Cy Young with this season just about any other year. 19-5 with a 2.49 era, 217 strikeouts, a 1.14 whip, 2 complete games, 1 shutout on a 3rd place team. And he's still only 23 years old. I know it doesn't seem like it since he's been in the majors for parts of 5 years already.
Justin Verlander
Verlander had what may have been his best season so far, finishing with a 17-5 record and anchoring the Tigers' pitching staff to within one game of the playoffs. Some of the other eye-popping numbers: 269 strikeouts, a 3.45 era, 1.18 whip, and 3 complete games in 240 innings pitched. He improved nearly every key stat a pitcher can improve in a single season, seeing a lower walk total, higher strikeouts, and lower era.
C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia had a very good year, proving that a good pitcher can still go to the Big Apple and own the place. A World Championship in year 1, Sabathia anchored the depleted Yankee rotation with a 19-8 record, a 3.37 era, 1.15 whip, and 197 strikeouts in 230 innings pitched this year. Another player who might have won a Cy Young in a different year, the Yankees will more than get their money's worth out of Sabathia.
Roy Halladay
Every year, it seems Halladay ends up in this discussion. This is the 4th straight year that Halladay has received votes for this award. Subjected to a summer of trade rumors, Halladay still went 17-10 with a 2.79 era, 1.13 whip, a league-leading 9 complete games and 4 shutouts, and 208 strikeouts in 239 innings for the Blue Jays. I'm not sure where he pitches come the beginning of April, but it's safe to say at this point that Roy is going to take the ball, and keep his team in the game at all times.
This is the 4th straight Cy Young winner to come from the AL Central division (Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee). Hopefully this won't be the 4th one to leave the division in the years afterward.
Voting (first place)
Greinke: 134 (25)
Felix Hernandez: 80 (2)
Justin Verlander: 14 (1)
C.C. Sabathia: 13
Roy Halladay: 11
Zack Greinke
Zack posted an extremely dominant season, starting out 6-0 and never looking back. He finished the season with 16 wins (the least of any Cy Young award winner ever), a 2.16 era, 6 complete games, 3 shutouts, 242 strikeouts, and a 1.07 whip. A dominant season by any stretch, and most likely there would have been no doubt about this if he had played in a major market, or for a contending team.
Felix Hernandez
King Felix probably would have won a Cy Young with this season just about any other year. 19-5 with a 2.49 era, 217 strikeouts, a 1.14 whip, 2 complete games, 1 shutout on a 3rd place team. And he's still only 23 years old. I know it doesn't seem like it since he's been in the majors for parts of 5 years already.
Justin Verlander
Verlander had what may have been his best season so far, finishing with a 17-5 record and anchoring the Tigers' pitching staff to within one game of the playoffs. Some of the other eye-popping numbers: 269 strikeouts, a 3.45 era, 1.18 whip, and 3 complete games in 240 innings pitched. He improved nearly every key stat a pitcher can improve in a single season, seeing a lower walk total, higher strikeouts, and lower era.
C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia had a very good year, proving that a good pitcher can still go to the Big Apple and own the place. A World Championship in year 1, Sabathia anchored the depleted Yankee rotation with a 19-8 record, a 3.37 era, 1.15 whip, and 197 strikeouts in 230 innings pitched this year. Another player who might have won a Cy Young in a different year, the Yankees will more than get their money's worth out of Sabathia.
Roy Halladay
Every year, it seems Halladay ends up in this discussion. This is the 4th straight year that Halladay has received votes for this award. Subjected to a summer of trade rumors, Halladay still went 17-10 with a 2.79 era, 1.13 whip, a league-leading 9 complete games and 4 shutouts, and 208 strikeouts in 239 innings for the Blue Jays. I'm not sure where he pitches come the beginning of April, but it's safe to say at this point that Roy is going to take the ball, and keep his team in the game at all times.
This is the 4th straight Cy Young winner to come from the AL Central division (Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee). Hopefully this won't be the 4th one to leave the division in the years afterward.
Links for 11/17/09
Some afternoon links....
- Mister Baseball talks about the structure of a new Italian baseball league that is forming. Interesting to read about how the sport is growing in other countries besides the U.S., Japan, and Latin America.
- Jason Grey has his wrapup about AFL outfielders. A definite good read for anyone interested in prospects.
- Project Prospect has their top 15 centerfielders. No real argument here with Jennings at the top.
- Baseball America has released their top 10 prospects for the Braves, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, and the most recent was the Cubs.
NL Rookie of the Year Review
Chris Coghlan was announced as the winner of the National League Rookie of the Year award for 2009 yesterday.
In my predictions, I noted that I thought Andrew McCutchen would win, but that it wouldn't surprise me if Coghlan won instead. The voting for this award was much more spread out than its AL counterpart:
Votes (first place)
Coghlan - 105 (17)
J.A. Happ - 94 (10)
Tommy Hanson - 37 (2)
Andrew McCutchen - 25 (2)
Casey McGehee - 18 (1)
Randy Wells - 3
Garrett Jones - 2
Everth Cabrera, Dexter Fowler, Gerardo Parra, Colby Rasmus - 1 each
Chris Coghlan
Coghlan joined the Marlins on May 8th, and from there just hit and hit and hit. In 128 games, he hit .321/.390/.460, with 9 homers, 8 steals, and 84 runs scored. This while also learning a new position (LF) that he had never played before. While there were definite growing pains associated with learning this new position, Coghlan's bat more than made up for it. He should only get better as he matures.
J.A. Happ
Happ really made a huge impact this season, making the roster in the bullpen out of spring training, and when injuries hit transitioning into a starting role. He finished the year with a 12-4 record, a 2.93 era, 3 complete games (2 shutouts), and a 1.24 whip. I doubt highly that the Phillies would have made the postseason if not for the contributions of Happ. Apparently I had completely forgotten about him when making my predictions, because he would definitely have been ahead of McCutchen had I remembered.
Tommy Hanson
Hanson did not make his debut until June 7th, but it was definitely worth the wait. He finished the season with an 11-4 record, a 2.89 era, a 1.18 whip, and 116 strikeouts in 127 2/3 innings. Hanson is the next great Braves starter, and I am really looking forward to what he can do in a full season. A player that I discounted somewhat because of not being up for the full season, but probably should have included as well.
Andrew McCutchen
McCutchen did not debut until early June either, but went on a tear once he was there. He finished with a .286/.365/.471 line with 12 homers, 54 rbi, 22 steals, and 74 runs. While the trade of Nate McLouth was extremely unpopular with Pirate fans, it allowed them to really showcase McCutchen, who didn't disappoint. I think that he would have won this award hands down if he had been up for the full season. He's going to be really interesting to watch, and hope that the Pirates can keep him long term.
Casey McGehee
McGehee was actually put on waivers at the end of last season by the Cubs, and they are going to regret letting him go. The Brewers used him as a sort of super-utility, trying to get his bat in the lineup while trying him at multiple positions. He played 2B, 3B, and even 1B for them last season, while hitting the cover off the ball to the tune of .301/.360/.499 with 16 homers and 66 rbi. Hopefully next season the Brewers will pick one position to let him play, and leave him there. But that could prove interesting with the return of Rickie Weeks, and the promotion of top prospect Mat Gamel.
Randy Wells
Wells did well this season, and really helped to solidify the Cubs rotation. He compiled a 12-10 record, with a 3.05 era, 1.28 whip, and 104 strikeouts in 165 1/3 innings. Originally drafted as a rule 5 player by the Blue Jays, he was returned to the Cubs during the 2008 season. While the season for the Cubs was lost, Wells was a bright spot on an otherwise poor starting rotation.
Garrett Jones
Jones was never really considered a top flight prospect, especially since he was 27 when he was called up for his first real length of time in the majors. But he hit. .293/.372/.567 with 21 homers in just 82 games. While it remains to be seen what he can do with a full season, he should be very interesting to watch, especially since he is likely to get consistent playing time in 2010.
Overall, another group where not every top prospect made an impact. At the beginning of the season, Rasmus, Hanson, Fowler, and Cameron Maybin were all mentioned as top candidates, and only Hanson really had a showing worthy of the award.
In my predictions, I noted that I thought Andrew McCutchen would win, but that it wouldn't surprise me if Coghlan won instead. The voting for this award was much more spread out than its AL counterpart:
Votes (first place)
Coghlan - 105 (17)
J.A. Happ - 94 (10)
Tommy Hanson - 37 (2)
Andrew McCutchen - 25 (2)
Casey McGehee - 18 (1)
Randy Wells - 3
Garrett Jones - 2
Everth Cabrera, Dexter Fowler, Gerardo Parra, Colby Rasmus - 1 each
Chris Coghlan
Coghlan joined the Marlins on May 8th, and from there just hit and hit and hit. In 128 games, he hit .321/.390/.460, with 9 homers, 8 steals, and 84 runs scored. This while also learning a new position (LF) that he had never played before. While there were definite growing pains associated with learning this new position, Coghlan's bat more than made up for it. He should only get better as he matures.
J.A. Happ
Happ really made a huge impact this season, making the roster in the bullpen out of spring training, and when injuries hit transitioning into a starting role. He finished the year with a 12-4 record, a 2.93 era, 3 complete games (2 shutouts), and a 1.24 whip. I doubt highly that the Phillies would have made the postseason if not for the contributions of Happ. Apparently I had completely forgotten about him when making my predictions, because he would definitely have been ahead of McCutchen had I remembered.
Tommy Hanson
Hanson did not make his debut until June 7th, but it was definitely worth the wait. He finished the season with an 11-4 record, a 2.89 era, a 1.18 whip, and 116 strikeouts in 127 2/3 innings. Hanson is the next great Braves starter, and I am really looking forward to what he can do in a full season. A player that I discounted somewhat because of not being up for the full season, but probably should have included as well.
Andrew McCutchen
McCutchen did not debut until early June either, but went on a tear once he was there. He finished with a .286/.365/.471 line with 12 homers, 54 rbi, 22 steals, and 74 runs. While the trade of Nate McLouth was extremely unpopular with Pirate fans, it allowed them to really showcase McCutchen, who didn't disappoint. I think that he would have won this award hands down if he had been up for the full season. He's going to be really interesting to watch, and hope that the Pirates can keep him long term.
Casey McGehee
McGehee was actually put on waivers at the end of last season by the Cubs, and they are going to regret letting him go. The Brewers used him as a sort of super-utility, trying to get his bat in the lineup while trying him at multiple positions. He played 2B, 3B, and even 1B for them last season, while hitting the cover off the ball to the tune of .301/.360/.499 with 16 homers and 66 rbi. Hopefully next season the Brewers will pick one position to let him play, and leave him there. But that could prove interesting with the return of Rickie Weeks, and the promotion of top prospect Mat Gamel.
Randy Wells
Wells did well this season, and really helped to solidify the Cubs rotation. He compiled a 12-10 record, with a 3.05 era, 1.28 whip, and 104 strikeouts in 165 1/3 innings. Originally drafted as a rule 5 player by the Blue Jays, he was returned to the Cubs during the 2008 season. While the season for the Cubs was lost, Wells was a bright spot on an otherwise poor starting rotation.
Garrett Jones
Jones was never really considered a top flight prospect, especially since he was 27 when he was called up for his first real length of time in the majors. But he hit. .293/.372/.567 with 21 homers in just 82 games. While it remains to be seen what he can do with a full season, he should be very interesting to watch, especially since he is likely to get consistent playing time in 2010.
Overall, another group where not every top prospect made an impact. At the beginning of the season, Rasmus, Hanson, Fowler, and Cameron Maybin were all mentioned as top candidates, and only Hanson really had a showing worthy of the award.
AL Rookie of the Year Review
Andrew Bailey was announced as the winner of the American League Rookie of the Year for 2009 yesterday.
In my predictions, I thought Bailey would win the award, but it was a lot closer than I thought it would be. The voting (first place in parentheses):
Bailey - 88 votes (13)
Elvis Andrus - 65 (8)
Rick Porcello - 64 (7)
Jeff Niemann - 21
Gordon Beckham - 10
Brett Anderson - 4
Andrew Bailey
Andrew spent the majority of the 2009 season as the closer for the A's, and was 26-for-30 in save opportunities this year. But his dominance is better illustrated in his other stats: 1.84 ERA, 91 strikeouts, a .167 opponents batting average, and a 0.88 WHIP. His numbers were extremely comparable to the elite players at his position:
Bailey: 1.84 ERA, 91 K, .167 Opp BA, 0.88 WHIP, 26 saves
Mariano Rivera: 1.76 ERA, 72 K, .197 Opp BA, 0.91 WHIP, 44 saves
Joe Nathan: 2.10 ERA, 89 K, .171 Opp BA, 0.93 WHIP, 47 saves
Bear in mind, that Bailey did not take over the closer role until early May, and could potentially have had a lot more saves on a more competitive team. Digging in a little deeper, there are a couple of concerns I have for the next season.
Bailey's Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was a very low .234. Those same comps had .252 (Nathan), and .263 (Rivera), so I would be inclined to believe that some form of correction to the mean may occur next season. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) number was 2.56, almost a full run higher than his actual era. Again, not a huge problem necessarily for a reliever, but something to keep an eye on.
So, how did his competitors fare last season?
Elvis Andrus
Andrus was named the starting shortstop for the Rangers prior to the season. The Rangers thought so highly of him that they asked All-Star SS Michael Young to switch to 3B. Andrus definitely did not disappoint. He hit to the tune of .267/.329/.373 with 72 runs, 6 hr, and 33 sb. Andrus was also no slouch with the glove, as he compiled a 10.7 UZR rating at SS. A very good rookie season.
Rick Porcello
Porcello joined the Tigers out of spring training, and made the rotation. This was a huge surprise, considering that he had only pitched one year in the minors, and it was in A-ball at that. However, he made a very strong impact, compiling a 14-9 record with a 3.96 era, 89 strikeouts, and a 1.34 whip. They believed in him so heavily, in fact, that he was the choice to start the play-in game against the Twins on 10/6. Porcello should be a very good major league pitcher for years to come.
Jeff Niemann
Niemann made the Rays rotation out of spring training, after having a couple of starts in 2008. With a 13-6 record, Niemann was one of the few pitchers that the Rays could rely on throughout the season. He gave the Rays 180 innings, while compiling a 3.94 era, 1.35 whip, and 125 strikeouts. I frankly thought that Niemann would finish ahead of Porcello, but that could be partially due to Porcello pitching meaningful games in October. Niemann will be a solid #2-3 anchor for the Rays rotation in a system that is full of top-level pitching.
Gordon Beckham
Beckham was called up in May, and was the first player from the 2008 draft to have a meaningful impact in the Majors. He posted a very solid .270/.360/.477 line, with 14 homers, 58 rbi, and 7 steals. All while learning a new position in the major leagues. While he had some of the better stats of the season, I felt that he should be discounted slightly due to not being up for the whole season. Not really his fault, but that's how it goes. Beckham will have another transition to make next season, as the White Sox announced that he would be moving to 2B to accommodate newly acquired Mark Teahen.
Brett Anderson
Anderson spent the whole season in the A's rotation, and posted a respectable 11-10 record on a bad team. He really came on in the second half, going 6-4 with a 3.48 era, 86 strikeouts, and a 1.19 whip. If he puts together a full season like his second half, he's going to be a very, very good pitcher for a long time.
Overall, this year's AL rookie class was one of the strongest. Especially when you consider that the two top rookies in the AL at the beginning of the season aren't here either. (Matt Wieters, David Price). This whole group should be interesting to watch for years to come.
In my predictions, I thought Bailey would win the award, but it was a lot closer than I thought it would be. The voting (first place in parentheses):
Bailey - 88 votes (13)
Elvis Andrus - 65 (8)
Rick Porcello - 64 (7)
Jeff Niemann - 21
Gordon Beckham - 10
Brett Anderson - 4
Andrew Bailey
Andrew spent the majority of the 2009 season as the closer for the A's, and was 26-for-30 in save opportunities this year. But his dominance is better illustrated in his other stats: 1.84 ERA, 91 strikeouts, a .167 opponents batting average, and a 0.88 WHIP. His numbers were extremely comparable to the elite players at his position:
Bailey: 1.84 ERA, 91 K, .167 Opp BA, 0.88 WHIP, 26 saves
Mariano Rivera: 1.76 ERA, 72 K, .197 Opp BA, 0.91 WHIP, 44 saves
Joe Nathan: 2.10 ERA, 89 K, .171 Opp BA, 0.93 WHIP, 47 saves
Bear in mind, that Bailey did not take over the closer role until early May, and could potentially have had a lot more saves on a more competitive team. Digging in a little deeper, there are a couple of concerns I have for the next season.
Bailey's Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was a very low .234. Those same comps had .252 (Nathan), and .263 (Rivera), so I would be inclined to believe that some form of correction to the mean may occur next season. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) number was 2.56, almost a full run higher than his actual era. Again, not a huge problem necessarily for a reliever, but something to keep an eye on.
So, how did his competitors fare last season?
Elvis Andrus
Andrus was named the starting shortstop for the Rangers prior to the season. The Rangers thought so highly of him that they asked All-Star SS Michael Young to switch to 3B. Andrus definitely did not disappoint. He hit to the tune of .267/.329/.373 with 72 runs, 6 hr, and 33 sb. Andrus was also no slouch with the glove, as he compiled a 10.7 UZR rating at SS. A very good rookie season.
Rick Porcello
Porcello joined the Tigers out of spring training, and made the rotation. This was a huge surprise, considering that he had only pitched one year in the minors, and it was in A-ball at that. However, he made a very strong impact, compiling a 14-9 record with a 3.96 era, 89 strikeouts, and a 1.34 whip. They believed in him so heavily, in fact, that he was the choice to start the play-in game against the Twins on 10/6. Porcello should be a very good major league pitcher for years to come.
Jeff Niemann
Niemann made the Rays rotation out of spring training, after having a couple of starts in 2008. With a 13-6 record, Niemann was one of the few pitchers that the Rays could rely on throughout the season. He gave the Rays 180 innings, while compiling a 3.94 era, 1.35 whip, and 125 strikeouts. I frankly thought that Niemann would finish ahead of Porcello, but that could be partially due to Porcello pitching meaningful games in October. Niemann will be a solid #2-3 anchor for the Rays rotation in a system that is full of top-level pitching.
Gordon Beckham
Beckham was called up in May, and was the first player from the 2008 draft to have a meaningful impact in the Majors. He posted a very solid .270/.360/.477 line, with 14 homers, 58 rbi, and 7 steals. All while learning a new position in the major leagues. While he had some of the better stats of the season, I felt that he should be discounted slightly due to not being up for the whole season. Not really his fault, but that's how it goes. Beckham will have another transition to make next season, as the White Sox announced that he would be moving to 2B to accommodate newly acquired Mark Teahen.
Brett Anderson
Anderson spent the whole season in the A's rotation, and posted a respectable 11-10 record on a bad team. He really came on in the second half, going 6-4 with a 3.48 era, 86 strikeouts, and a 1.19 whip. If he puts together a full season like his second half, he's going to be a very, very good pitcher for a long time.
Overall, this year's AL rookie class was one of the strongest. Especially when you consider that the two top rookies in the AL at the beginning of the season aren't here either. (Matt Wieters, David Price). This whole group should be interesting to watch for years to come.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Links for 11/10/09
- The San Jose Giants were named Minor League Baseball's franchise of the year. I've been to a couple of their games, and they do a very good job trying to get people to the games, and they were always fun in my opinion.
- Khoi Vinh has an interesting read about the correlation between revenue, payroll, and success in the Majors.
- R.J. Anderson over at FanGraphs has a new article about the discrepancies involved with the Elias Free Agent Rankings. It's a valid point.
- Johanna Wagner over at Love My Team has an article about the case against collusion since 2002.
- An older article, David Sabino of SI.com ranked each team's performance in the draft over the last 10 years (prior to the most recent draft).
Trade Review - CHW/KCR
Chicago White Sox trade 2B Chris Getz and 3B Josh Fields to the Kansas City Royals for 3B/OF Mark Teahen.
Source: ESPN.com
To be honest, I hadn't really followed what Mark Teahen has been doing in Kansas City. My most common recollection of him is the fact that he was a part of the Carlos Beltran trade a few years ago, and that the Royals kept moving him all over the field, playing 2B, 3B, 1B, and OF during his time there. That said, he appears to have at least been a serviceable player at many of those positions, with a fair bat. For the White Sox, he's going to be playing 3B, and shifting Gordon Beckham from 3B to 2B. When I first heard this trade, I assumed (wrongly it turns out) that Teahen would be playing right field, replacing the newly free-agent Jermaine Dye.
The Royals get two very serviceable players in Getz and Fields. Getz stole 25 bases last year in 107 games, and playing a solid 2B. Fields, who seemed to be in the doghouse constantly for the White Sox, hit 23 homers as a rookie in 2006, and hasn't really seen consistent playing time since.
I really think that the Royals did well on this trade, as they sent a player who is one year from free agency, and in return got 2 young players that are under team control for much longer than that.
Some other analysis about this trade:
MLBTradeRumors' coverage
ESPNChicago's Jon Greenberg thinks the White Sox are just shuffling the deck.
Source: ESPN.com
To be honest, I hadn't really followed what Mark Teahen has been doing in Kansas City. My most common recollection of him is the fact that he was a part of the Carlos Beltran trade a few years ago, and that the Royals kept moving him all over the field, playing 2B, 3B, 1B, and OF during his time there. That said, he appears to have at least been a serviceable player at many of those positions, with a fair bat. For the White Sox, he's going to be playing 3B, and shifting Gordon Beckham from 3B to 2B. When I first heard this trade, I assumed (wrongly it turns out) that Teahen would be playing right field, replacing the newly free-agent Jermaine Dye.
The Royals get two very serviceable players in Getz and Fields. Getz stole 25 bases last year in 107 games, and playing a solid 2B. Fields, who seemed to be in the doghouse constantly for the White Sox, hit 23 homers as a rookie in 2006, and hasn't really seen consistent playing time since.
I really think that the Royals did well on this trade, as they sent a player who is one year from free agency, and in return got 2 young players that are under team control for much longer than that.
Some other analysis about this trade:
MLBTradeRumors' coverage
ESPNChicago's Jon Greenberg thinks the White Sox are just shuffling the deck.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Links for 11/9/09
Some links for today...
- Mike Silva at New York Baseball Digest breaks down his top 50 prospects in the Yankees system.
- Ken Davidoff at Newsday.com has a new article about his top 10 General Manager rankings.
- Ryan Campbell at Love My Team has a good explanation of how free agency works.
- Joe Posnanski has a great (and self-admittedly long) post about some of the best eligible hitters not yet in the Hall of Fame. Joe has a Hall of Fame vote, so I think it gives a little perspective into his next vote.
Some Other Moves from Last Week
Now that the World Series is over, we will start seeing a flurry of transactions in the coming days. Last week was no exception. I've already discussed the J.J. Hardy-Carlos Gomez trade, but wanted to make mention of some of the other moves completed last week.
- Philadelphia exercised Cliff Lee's 2010 option. No surprise here. Cliff pitched amazingly down the stretch for the Phillies. Now they need to start working on a contract extension and keep him there even longer.
- Manny Ramirez will return to the Dodgers on his exercised option. Also not a huge surprise to me here. Manny likes it in Los Angeles, and probably knew that he would never get $20 million on the open market this season.
- Brandon Webb had his 2010 option exercised as well. Based on how much the buyout was ($2 M), it wasn't a huge surprise that it was picked up. Well worth the risk in my opinion.
- Jermaine Dye had his option for 2010 bought out, and became a free agent. He'll catch on somewhere, as he is still a productive outfielder. Just not at the price of his 2010 option.
- Philadelphia exercised Cliff Lee's 2010 option. No surprise here. Cliff pitched amazingly down the stretch for the Phillies. Now they need to start working on a contract extension and keep him there even longer.
- Manny Ramirez will return to the Dodgers on his exercised option. Also not a huge surprise to me here. Manny likes it in Los Angeles, and probably knew that he would never get $20 million on the open market this season.
- Brandon Webb had his 2010 option exercised as well. Based on how much the buyout was ($2 M), it wasn't a huge surprise that it was picked up. Well worth the risk in my opinion.
- Jermaine Dye had his option for 2010 bought out, and became a free agent. He'll catch on somewhere, as he is still a productive outfielder. Just not at the price of his 2010 option.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Trade Review - MIL/MIN
Milwaukee trades J.J. Hardy to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez
Source: ESPN.com
When I first heard this trade, I really liked it for both teams. Hardy fills an immediate need for the Twins at SS, and only takes away from a position of strength. For the Twins, they are able to shift Denard Span permanently to CF, and have either Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel go to RF. For the Brewers, this allows them to let Mike Cameron leave via free-agency, and take that savings to help improve the team in other areas. This definitely signals the start of the Alcides Escobar era in Milwaukee, as he will likely be handed the starting SS job.
Overall, I like this trade a lot. One of those trades that makes too much sense.
Some other opinions and information:
Beyond the Box Score takes a look at the impact of this trade on the defense of the Twins next season.
They also take a look at the value provided to each team by each player.
Source: ESPN.com
When I first heard this trade, I really liked it for both teams. Hardy fills an immediate need for the Twins at SS, and only takes away from a position of strength. For the Twins, they are able to shift Denard Span permanently to CF, and have either Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel go to RF. For the Brewers, this allows them to let Mike Cameron leave via free-agency, and take that savings to help improve the team in other areas. This definitely signals the start of the Alcides Escobar era in Milwaukee, as he will likely be handed the starting SS job.
Overall, I like this trade a lot. One of those trades that makes too much sense.
Some other opinions and information:
Beyond the Box Score takes a look at the impact of this trade on the defense of the Twins next season.
They also take a look at the value provided to each team by each player.
Congrats
Congrats to the New York Yankees on winning another world Championship.
Time for everyone else to start making themselves better to catch them.
Time for everyone else to start making themselves better to catch them.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Weekly Links
Once a week, I will be posting articles and links that I found interesting related to baseball.
- Baseball America has begun posting its organizational top 10 prospects. They started with Atlanta. For more in-depth information, you'll need to subscribe. It does give some good basic info though.
- One of the Philadelphia papers made a mistake. Not a particularly good one either. After losing both games at home, I'd probably be pretty upset too.
- Jorge Says No! is starting a series of columns reviewing some of the worst contracts in baseball, beginning with Jake Westbrook. Interesting read, and I'm looking forward to the future columns as well.
-Yawkey Way Academy looks at what it would take for the Red Sox to acquire Javy Vasquez from the Braves. I love these "what-if" articles. Always fun to play the GM. (Thanks to OvertheMonster for the link)
- Vicente Padilla apparently has a small problem. But he's going to be fine, and apparently there's interest from the Dodgers in him returning next season.
You can follow me on Twitter.
- Baseball America has begun posting its organizational top 10 prospects. They started with Atlanta. For more in-depth information, you'll need to subscribe. It does give some good basic info though.
- One of the Philadelphia papers made a mistake. Not a particularly good one either. After losing both games at home, I'd probably be pretty upset too.
- Jorge Says No! is starting a series of columns reviewing some of the worst contracts in baseball, beginning with Jake Westbrook. Interesting read, and I'm looking forward to the future columns as well.
-Yawkey Way Academy looks at what it would take for the Red Sox to acquire Javy Vasquez from the Braves. I love these "what-if" articles. Always fun to play the GM. (Thanks to OvertheMonster for the link)
- Vicente Padilla apparently has a small problem. But he's going to be fine, and apparently there's interest from the Dodgers in him returning next season.
You can follow me on Twitter.
World Series Thoughts
Been a bit busy, and didn't get to catch anything but the highlights for Game 5...
- Chase Utley is hopefully becoming a household name. He's played extremely well, and if the Phillies do manage to come back and win this Series, he's a lock for MVP.
- Game 6's matchup, when I first heard it, made me initially think Red Sox-Yankees. Guess Pedro really was known for that, even more than I thought previously.
- I would love to see the Phillies win tonight, and force a game 7 tomorrow. I love seeing games where they will throw anyone and everyone out there if need be.
- It has been a much better and more interesting World Series than I thought it would be initially. As much as it annoys me that the Yankees may very well have purchased this title, the players on the field still have to execute.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
My Award Winners for 2009
AL MVP - Joe Mauer (C - MIN)
Joe Mauer didn't play in 24 games (almost a month worth), and still did this:
AL Cy Young - Zack Greinke (SP - KC)
Yes, he pitched for a bad team. But the award isn't given to the best pitcher on a good team.
Zack Greinke:
AL Rookie of the Year - Andrew Bailey (RP - OAK)
Andrew was an afterthought in the A's bullpen at the start of this year, and came out with some very dominant numbers. He took over the closer role early on in the season, and never gave it up.
NL MVP - Albert Pujols (1B - STL)
Do I need to even explain this one?
NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum (SP - SF)
I actually saw Lincecum pitch against Philadelphia on August 1st. He was dominant that night, striking out 8 and scattering 7 hits in a 2-0 win.
NL Rookie of the Year - Andrew McCutchen (OF - PIT)
When I first started writing this, I had Chris Coghlan down as my rookie of the year. But after looking at McCutchen's stats, I was surprised at how much better they appeared than Coghlan's.
Joe Mauer didn't play in 24 games (almost a month worth), and still did this:
- led the majors in batting average (.365)
- led the majors in on-base percentage (.444)
- led the AL in slugging (.587)
- finished second in the majors in OPS (1.031), behind Albert Pujols
- hit 28 homers, drove in 96 runs, and had 191 hits
- pieced together a pitching staff decimated by injuries and inconsistency
- helped lead his team to a division title
AL Cy Young - Zack Greinke (SP - KC)
Yes, he pitched for a bad team. But the award isn't given to the best pitcher on a good team.
Zack Greinke:
- led the majors in ERA (2.16)
- led the AL in WHIP (1.07)
- second in the AL in strikeouts (242)
- Tied for third in the AL in wins (16)
- second in the AL in complete games (6) and shutouts (3)
- has 26 quality starts (out of 33)
- could have had more wins potentially - in his 8 losses he got 15 runs of support, including being on the losing end of a 1-0 and a 2-0 loss.
AL Rookie of the Year - Andrew Bailey (RP - OAK)
Andrew was an afterthought in the A's bullpen at the start of this year, and came out with some very dominant numbers. He took over the closer role early on in the season, and never gave it up.
- 1.84 ERA
- 26 saves
- 91 strikeouts in 83 innings
NL MVP - Albert Pujols (1B - STL)
Do I need to even explain this one?
- 1st in NL in OBP (.443)
- 1st in Majors in Slugging Percentage (.658)
- 1st in Majors in OPS (1.101)
- 1st in Majors in Runs (124)
- 1st in Majors in Total Bases (374)
- 1st in Majors in Homers (47)
- 2nd in Majors in RBI (135)
NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum (SP - SF)
I actually saw Lincecum pitch against Philadelphia on August 1st. He was dominant that night, striking out 8 and scattering 7 hits in a 2-0 win.
- Led the majors in strikeouts (261)
- 3rd in the majors in ERA (2.48)
- 4th in the majors in WHIP (1.05)
- 1st in NL in Complete Games (4) and Shutouts (2)
- 23 quality starts (out of 32)
- Got a no-decision or a loss in 10 of those quality starts
NL Rookie of the Year - Andrew McCutchen (OF - PIT)
When I first started writing this, I had Chris Coghlan down as my rookie of the year. But after looking at McCutchen's stats, I was surprised at how much better they appeared than Coghlan's.
- 12 homers (Coghlan 9)
- 22 steals (Coghlan 8)
- 54 rbi (Coghlan 47)
Monday, November 2, 2009
Games 3 and 4 Thoughts
I didn't get a chance to watch either of Games 3 or 4 with a busy weekend, but from the highlights and recaps, a few things stood out to me.
- The Phillies held their ace for Game 5, and there's a chance it may have really cost them. Blanton pitched well, but they really needed to win Game 4, and would have been able to figure it out from there.
- I can't recall ever seeing anyone steal 2 bases on the same pitch like that, but it definitely caught the Phillies sleeping.
- Ryan Howard has really not hit very well, and it seems to be showing.
- Alex Rodriguez is hitting really, really well. Crud.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Game 2 Thoughts
Yankees evened the series up at 1 each last night, behind some excellent pitching.
- Burnett pitched a great game. He looked really sharp, and the Phillies didn't have a good real answer for it.
- Pedro Martinez is one of the best pitchers I've ever seen. Even with diminished velocity, he baffled the Yankee hitters for the better part of 6 innings, only a few minor mistakes. Otherwise a very well pitched game, but just not quite enough offensive support to help him.
- Mariano Rivera remains one of the best late inning relievers of all time. His team needed 2 innings from him, and he delivered yet again. So money.
Saturday's matchup is somewhat of a let down in comparison to the previous 2 pitching matchups. Pettitte has been one of the best postseason pitchers in the past, and his matchup against Cole Hamels could potentially be really good, or potentially be a slugfest.
- Burnett pitched a great game. He looked really sharp, and the Phillies didn't have a good real answer for it.
- Pedro Martinez is one of the best pitchers I've ever seen. Even with diminished velocity, he baffled the Yankee hitters for the better part of 6 innings, only a few minor mistakes. Otherwise a very well pitched game, but just not quite enough offensive support to help him.
- Mariano Rivera remains one of the best late inning relievers of all time. His team needed 2 innings from him, and he delivered yet again. So money.
Saturday's matchup is somewhat of a let down in comparison to the previous 2 pitching matchups. Pettitte has been one of the best postseason pitchers in the past, and his matchup against Cole Hamels could potentially be really good, or potentially be a slugfest.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Prospect Research
I currently play in one long-term fantasy baseball keeper league, so it is in my best interest in this league to keep current on all the information I can find about top prospects.
Prospects are a bit hard to gauge, for a number of reasons:
- You are trying to project what a player will do in future, against better competition, based on either what you see, or what he does against inferior competition.
- Scouting plays a large portion of determining what can be done with a player. A player that is 25 isn't going to have as much potential to grow from their current level as a player who is 19.
- Rankings for players can be subjective (I personally like to look if a team has been good historically at developing prospects of certain positions.
- Players still have a mental aspect to them. Why do certain players thrive in the spotlight (like a Derek Jeter), when others melt under its pressure? Why do certain players work harder than others?
Remember, the draft is no guarantee of talent. The best player in the game, Albert Pujols, was drafted in the 13th round. There have also been two different players who were taken #1 overall, who never played a day in the major leagues (Brien Taylor (NYY), Matt Bush (SD)). So while the draft will help to show some of the higher end talent, that doesn't mean that there still won't be players from the lower rounds that will play their way into the Majors.
Statistical analysis has gotten better at quantifying which players are likely to do well in the majors, and which players are likely to improve. But some of it is still a bit of guess work. That said, these guys are considered by many to be excellent sources for prospect information.
Baseball America
Minor League Baseball
John Sickels
Prospects are a bit hard to gauge, for a number of reasons:
- You are trying to project what a player will do in future, against better competition, based on either what you see, or what he does against inferior competition.
- Scouting plays a large portion of determining what can be done with a player. A player that is 25 isn't going to have as much potential to grow from their current level as a player who is 19.
- Rankings for players can be subjective (I personally like to look if a team has been good historically at developing prospects of certain positions.
- Players still have a mental aspect to them. Why do certain players thrive in the spotlight (like a Derek Jeter), when others melt under its pressure? Why do certain players work harder than others?
Remember, the draft is no guarantee of talent. The best player in the game, Albert Pujols, was drafted in the 13th round. There have also been two different players who were taken #1 overall, who never played a day in the major leagues (Brien Taylor (NYY), Matt Bush (SD)). So while the draft will help to show some of the higher end talent, that doesn't mean that there still won't be players from the lower rounds that will play their way into the Majors.
Statistical analysis has gotten better at quantifying which players are likely to do well in the majors, and which players are likely to improve. But some of it is still a bit of guess work. That said, these guys are considered by many to be excellent sources for prospect information.
Baseball America
Minor League Baseball
John Sickels
Game 1 Thoughts
Congrats to the Phillies for winning game 1 last night. Some thoughts from the parts of the game I watched...
- Cliff Lee looked really sharp. The Yankee hitters didn't see to have a very good feel for what they want to do up there. 10 Ks will do that.
- Sabathia seems to have less control tonight, but made it work.
- Umpiring controversy in the 5th, but thankfully they got that call right.
- Chase Utley is a simply amazing player. 2 HRs last night. Hopefully everyone is getting a feel for how good he really is.
- ESPN provided a really interesting stat: Lee was the first pitcher to have 10 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER in a World Series start. He was also the first to have 10 K and 0 BB in a World Series game 1 in 106 years.
I had hoped it would be a good pitching matchup, and was definitely not disappointed. Sabathia pitched well enough to win on most days, but ran into the buzzsaw that is Cliff Lee.
- Cliff Lee looked really sharp. The Yankee hitters didn't see to have a very good feel for what they want to do up there. 10 Ks will do that.
- Sabathia seems to have less control tonight, but made it work.
- Umpiring controversy in the 5th, but thankfully they got that call right.
- Chase Utley is a simply amazing player. 2 HRs last night. Hopefully everyone is getting a feel for how good he really is.
- ESPN provided a really interesting stat: Lee was the first pitcher to have 10 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER in a World Series start. He was also the first to have 10 K and 0 BB in a World Series game 1 in 106 years.
I had hoped it would be a good pitching matchup, and was definitely not disappointed. Sabathia pitched well enough to win on most days, but ran into the buzzsaw that is Cliff Lee.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
World Series Preview and Predictions
The World Series starts tonight in New York, and for many baseball fans outside of the Philadelphia and New York markets, it's of little importance. Myself included. I am interested, however, in some of the storylines.
Game 1: C.C. Sabathia vs. Cliff Lee
The last 2 AL Cy Young winners face off tonight, and both have been pitching extremely well during their teams' run into the World Series. Lee is in his first postseason, having posted a miniscule 0.74 era in 24 innings. He is working on 9 days rest, having pitched last in Game 3 of the NLCS. Sabathia has compiled a 3-0 record in this postseason, with a nearly-as-miniscule 1.19 era in 23 innings. Probably going to be the matchup of the series, in my opinion.
The return of Pedro to Yankee Stadium
Phillies manager Charlie Manuel made a very astute decision by sending Pedro Martinez to start game 2 in Yankee Stadium. Pedro has been one of the most successful big game pitchers of the last 20 years, and should have no problem adjusting to the limelight associated with it. Yankee fans love to hate this guy, regardless of whether or not he is no longer a member of their hated rivals.
Which Cole Hamels will show up?
Will we see the one that went 3-0 last year in the postseason and lead his team to a world championship, or will we see the one that has pitched in the NL playoffs to this point (11 ER in 13.7 innings)? The Phillies will need last year's version to show up for them to have a good chance of winning this series.
Is A-Rod going to finally become a champion?
It is no secret how much A-Rod wants a World Series championship, and personally I am pulling for a Phillies repeat. I find it hard to feel sympathy for him because he doesn't have a championship. One look at his bank account causes that.
My Hope: 4 game sweep for the Phillies
My Actual Prediction:
Game 1: Phillies 2-1
Game 2: Yankees 7-4
Game 3: Phillies 6-4
Game 4: Yankees 5-3
Game 5: Phillies 8-2
Game 6: Phillies 6-5
Phillies win 4-2
Sources: Baseball Reference
Game 1: C.C. Sabathia vs. Cliff Lee
The last 2 AL Cy Young winners face off tonight, and both have been pitching extremely well during their teams' run into the World Series. Lee is in his first postseason, having posted a miniscule 0.74 era in 24 innings. He is working on 9 days rest, having pitched last in Game 3 of the NLCS. Sabathia has compiled a 3-0 record in this postseason, with a nearly-as-miniscule 1.19 era in 23 innings. Probably going to be the matchup of the series, in my opinion.
The return of Pedro to Yankee Stadium
Phillies manager Charlie Manuel made a very astute decision by sending Pedro Martinez to start game 2 in Yankee Stadium. Pedro has been one of the most successful big game pitchers of the last 20 years, and should have no problem adjusting to the limelight associated with it. Yankee fans love to hate this guy, regardless of whether or not he is no longer a member of their hated rivals.
Which Cole Hamels will show up?
Will we see the one that went 3-0 last year in the postseason and lead his team to a world championship, or will we see the one that has pitched in the NL playoffs to this point (11 ER in 13.7 innings)? The Phillies will need last year's version to show up for them to have a good chance of winning this series.
Is A-Rod going to finally become a champion?
It is no secret how much A-Rod wants a World Series championship, and personally I am pulling for a Phillies repeat. I find it hard to feel sympathy for him because he doesn't have a championship. One look at his bank account causes that.
My Hope: 4 game sweep for the Phillies
My Actual Prediction:
Game 1: Phillies 2-1
Game 2: Yankees 7-4
Game 3: Phillies 6-4
Game 4: Yankees 5-3
Game 5: Phillies 8-2
Game 6: Phillies 6-5
Phillies win 4-2
Sources: Baseball Reference
Welcome Aboard
I follow baseball. It is probably the one activity that takes up the majority of my free time. And I am starting this blog because I am hoping it will serve as a useful outlet for all my thoughts, research, and ramblings related to baseball.
I...
- Follow the Oakland A's (my hometown team)
- Follow the Chicago Cubs (the team of my wife, my in-laws, my wife's whole family, my parents - I'm surrounded!)
- Follow in passing all the other teams in the Major Leagues
- Play fantasy baseball, including one multi-year league
- Follow minor league players, specifically prospects
- Read most any baseball book I can get my hands on
I'm not entirely sure how this is going to play out, but hopefully it will be interesting.
I...
- Follow the Oakland A's (my hometown team)
- Follow the Chicago Cubs (the team of my wife, my in-laws, my wife's whole family, my parents - I'm surrounded!)
- Follow in passing all the other teams in the Major Leagues
- Play fantasy baseball, including one multi-year league
- Follow minor league players, specifically prospects
- Read most any baseball book I can get my hands on
I'm not entirely sure how this is going to play out, but hopefully it will be interesting.
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