Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Barry Larkin

Baseball Reference.Com Profile

Career Accomplishments
2340 hits
379 steals
OPS+ of 116
9 Silver Sluggers
12 All Star Appearances
1 MVP Award (1995)
9 seasons with .300 average
20 homer-20 steal seasons: 2

The Case for Larkin
 Larkin was one of the most productive hitters at shortstop during his era. He hit .300 9 times, won 9 Silver Slugger awards, and the 1995 MVP award. He finished with 2340 career hits and 379 steals, all with the Cincinnati Reds.

The Case Against Larkin
Larkin appears to have had a difficult time staying healthy, appearing in 140+ games only 7 times out of 17 (strike year excluded). His contemporaries were either excellent hitters and solid fielders, or excellent fielders who hit at an above average clip.

Analysis
12 All-Star Appearances and 5 All-Star starts tends to lead me to believe that Larkin was consistently among the top players at his position each year. He spent most of his seasons fighting Ozzie Smith for that position at the game. He won the Most Valuable Player award in 1995 behind a 15 homer, 51 stolen base, .319/.394/.492 season.

His overall career totals do not seem that impressive to me (379 steals, 2340 hits), so let's take a look at the year-to-year numbers and see if there are some elite periods in there. From 1989-1996, Larkin hit .298 or better 7 times, stole 20 bases 5 times, and hit 15+ homers 3 times. This appears to be his longest period of excellence. However, during that time, he only played 150 games 2 times, and in the strike years (1994, 1995), he did play in almost all of the games played that year.

The problem I keep running into is that Larkin never really seems to have been elite. He never had a 200 hit season, had only 2 100 run seasons, and really seems like he was not dominant for even a couple of years. Based on that, I am inclined to believe that Larkin is a very good player, and had a very good career. However, I do not believe that he warrants Hall of Fame induction.

MY VOTE: NO

Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Harold Baines

Baseball Reference.com Profile

Career Accomplishments
2866 hits
384 home runs
6 All Star Appearances
120 OPS+
11 20 home run seasons
3 100 rbi seasons
13 20+ double seasons

The Case for Baines
Baines was one of the top designated hitters of the 80's and 90's, amassing 2866 career hits, 488 doubles, 384 home runs, and a career line of .289/.356/.465. He made 6 All-Star appearances, and had a career OPS+ of 120.

The Case Against Baines
Baines became a full-time designated hitter after the 1987 season due to knee problems. Unfortunately for him, that was only a mere 6 seasons into his career. 384 homeruns is a fairly low total considering the era he played in.

Analysis
The first thing that stands out to me about Baines is the length of his career. I was very curious to see if his career totals were a product of prolonged excellence, or simply having a long career. So let's take a look at his single seasonnumbers and determine whether he had that period of dominance in him or not.

He appears to have shown some flashes of dominance, posting 3 straight seasons (1989-1991) with an OPS+ over 130. His best season appears to have been 1984, when he posted an OPS+ of 142, with a .304/.361/.541 with 29 homers, 94 rbi, 28 doubles, 10 triples. From 1982-1987, Baines had at least 50 extra base hits and 81 rbi. He also had 4 seasons with 10 outfield assists or more during that time.

Overall, I think that Baines had a very good career. 2800+ hits and 300+ home runs are definitely the hallmarks of a very good hitter. But I just don't see anything in either his season-to-season numbers or his career totals that really strike me as a dominant hitter, or worthy of the Hall of Fame.

MY VOTE: NO

Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Fred McGriff

Baseball Reference.Com Profile

Career Accomplishments
493 career home runs
2490 hits
OPS+ of 134
7 100 rbi seasons
12 90 rbi seasons
9 30 homer seasons (7 in a row)
.284/.377/.509

The Case for McGriff
The Crime Dog was an excellent run-producing slugger. He had 9 season with 30+ homers, 12 with 90+ rbi, and finished with 2490 hits and a career line of .284/.377/.509. He had 7 straight seasons with 30+ homers, and 2 different sets of 3 seasons with 100+ rbi in a row. (1991-1993, 1999-2001). He finished with a career postseason line of .303/.385/.532.

The Case Against McGriff
While McGriff was always a very solid slugger, he was never really viewed as an elite slugger. Falling 7 homers short of 500 in an era known for the long ball is probably not a good thing either. He only won 1 World Series championship. He faded in his last two seasons, dropping off and really only playing part time at best during that time.

Analysis
I am actually quite torn on this one. How much value do I place in 7 home runs? That really seems to be what his career totals come down to. McGriff was quite a power hitter, and 7 consecutive seasons of 30+ home runs is definitely an accomplishment. To me, it seems like McGriff's career numbers would be enough to get him into the Hall, providing he was elite for a period of at least 5 seasons.

So what do his year-to-year stats show me? McGriff hit 31+ home runs for 7 straight seasons (1988-1994), posted OPS+ of 143 or higher during each of the seasons as well. He drove in 92+ runs 6 of the 7 seasons, and never had an OPS below .890. I would qualify that as an elite stretch of his career.

These numbers compiled with his career totals lead me to believe that McGriff should be a Hall of Famer.

MY VOTE: YES

Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Edgar Martinez

Player Profile on Baseball Reference.com

Notable Career Accomplishments
2247 hits
.312 batting average
.418 on base percentage
.515 slugging percentage
OPS+ of 147
7 All-Star Appearances
5 Silver Slugger Awards
6 100+ rbi seasons

The Case for Martinez

Martinez was 1 of the 2 dominant players at his position for the majority of his career. His career numbers all compare favorably on a year-to-year basis with other similar players (ie players who did not start playing full-time until age 27 or later). His career OPS+ tells me that he was an excellent player, with some elite years mixed in. He also had OPS+ seasons of 150 or greater 7 times.

The Case Against Martinez

Martinez was a full-time position player only until 1995, when knee injuries forced him to be a designated hitter full-time. He was never much of a homerun hitter, only finishing with more than 30 in a season once. Due to his injuries and late arrival to the majors, his career totals are not particularly impressive. Also, he was rarely, if ever, the best player on his team.

Analysis

Personally, I think that the argument that designated hitters should not be in the Hall of Fame is a load of crap. The rules of the game clearly consider the designated hitter to be an important position, not to mention a valid one.

So how do his career numbers stack up? He had 2247 hits and an excellent career line (.312/.418/.515). All three of these numbers point to prolonged excellence. His career OPS+ (147) tells me that he was an elite hitter and slugger. While I do think extra credit can be given to hitters who can also field, I don't think fair to judge him as necessarily someone who cannot field.

Then we are left to look at how dominant a hitter he truly was. From 1995-2001, a span of 7 seasons, Martinez' lowest OPS+ was 152, never hit below .306, had at least 23 homers and 86 rbi (driving in over 102 in the other 6 seasons), and slugging .543 or better every year. I would definitely consider that to be a dominant stretch, and coupled with his career numbers, leads me to believe he is a Hall of Famer.

MY VOTE: YES

Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Mark McGwire

Player Profile - Baseball Reference.com

Career Accomplishments
583 homers
OPS+ of 162
100+ rbi seasons: 7
40 homer seasons: 6
.263/.394/.588

The Case for McGwire

McGwire had some of the most dominant seasons a slugger can have. He hit 49 homers his rookie year, and from 1996-1999 was other-worldly (52, 58, 70, 66). He had 7 seasons with an OPS over 1.000 (1993, 1995-2000). He is currently 8th all-time with 583 homers, 9th all-time with a .588 career slugging percentage, and 12th all time with an OPS+ of 162. And of course the 70 homer record-breaking season in 1998.

The Case Against McGwire

McGwire only hit .263 in his career, a reasonable average but nothing particularly special. He was not known as a particularly good fielder, and missed substantial time due to injuries. And then of course there are the elephants in the room: The implications related to his use of androstenedione; the questions regarding whether he used steroids during his career; his testimony before Congress regarding performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

Analysis

It is extremely difficult to get past that homerun total. 583 is good for 8th all time, and was 5th when he retired. McGwire's numbers show him to be a hitter with an excellent eye and monumental power. One of my criteria has been whether a player was truly excellent for a sustained period, or simply above-average for a longer period. It is my opinion that McGwire represents a truly excellent player, specifically from 1996-2000, a span of 5 seasons.

Realistically, I don't believe it was ever going to be Big Mac's numbers which concerned voters. While his use of andro was within the rules of the game when he was taking it, his unwillingness to "talk about the past" while testifying to Congress is his bell which cannot be unrung. However, without proof positive, I simply do not see how we can judge him on things we simply do not know for certain.

There is always a lot of talk about judging was is good for the integrity of the game. But I just cannot see how it is that we as fans can judge him any differently because he was receiving more media coverage. Would we have had the same disdain if we received as much information about Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, or any of the other scandals of the early years of baseball?

I believe that McGwire represents one of the most dominant power hitters in an era that is filled with them. And without proof or an admission that he cheated, I think we have to look at his career based on the breadth of his performance. And that performance was excellent.

MY VOTE: YES

Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Jack Morris

Player Profile on Baseball Reference.com

Notable Career Accomplishments
254-186 record
3.90 career ERA
ERA+ of 105
175 complete games
20 win seasons - 3
World Series Championships - 3

The Case for Morris

The first thing I think of when I hear Jack Morris' name is that he was the big game pitcher. You wanted him to start Game 1, and you wanted him for Game 7 as well. He pitched for 18 seasons, 14 of them with the Detroit Tigers. 254 wins, 175 complete games, 2478 strikeouts, and those 3 championships (1984, 1991, 1992) all portray him very well, especially the Game 7 10 inning shutout he threw to clinch the series victory in 1991.

The Case Against Morris

A career ERA+ (ERA adjusted against league average) of 105 tells us he was really only about 5% better than league average over the span of his career. A strikeout rate of 5.8 per 9 innings would hardly be considered dominant, as would having 186 losses as well. His 3.90 era over his career, while very good, seems high for a period in baseball where runs were not being scored at a rapid rate.

Analysis

While his big game reputation and success in those games are definitely a strong point in his favor, I don't think he was in enough of those types of games for that alone to warrant his selection. So I am forced to look at the rest of the body of his work. A 3.90 ERA and an ERA+ of 105 both cause me some concern. Both of these numbers tell me that he was an above-average pitcher, but not necessarily an elite one. Throw in his lower strikeout-per-9 inning rate, and it really shows me a pitcher who was not necessarily a dominant one.

This leaves me to look at his year-to-year statistics to see if he had prolonged periods of excellence. From 1983-1988, he had:

• an ERA under 3.40: 4 times
• 15 wins or more: 7 times
• 200 strikeouts: 3 times
• ERA+ of 120 or higher: 3 times
• 10+ complete games: 6 times

This appears to be the best sustained stretch of excellence that Morris had in his career, and while it is  clear that he had a very good career, I'm not sold that he warrants selection into the Hall of Fame.

MY VOTE: NO