Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Edgar Martinez

Player Profile on Baseball Reference.com

Notable Career Accomplishments
2247 hits
.312 batting average
.418 on base percentage
.515 slugging percentage
OPS+ of 147
7 All-Star Appearances
5 Silver Slugger Awards
6 100+ rbi seasons

The Case for Martinez

Martinez was 1 of the 2 dominant players at his position for the majority of his career. His career numbers all compare favorably on a year-to-year basis with other similar players (ie players who did not start playing full-time until age 27 or later). His career OPS+ tells me that he was an excellent player, with some elite years mixed in. He also had OPS+ seasons of 150 or greater 7 times.

The Case Against Martinez

Martinez was a full-time position player only until 1995, when knee injuries forced him to be a designated hitter full-time. He was never much of a homerun hitter, only finishing with more than 30 in a season once. Due to his injuries and late arrival to the majors, his career totals are not particularly impressive. Also, he was rarely, if ever, the best player on his team.

Analysis

Personally, I think that the argument that designated hitters should not be in the Hall of Fame is a load of crap. The rules of the game clearly consider the designated hitter to be an important position, not to mention a valid one.

So how do his career numbers stack up? He had 2247 hits and an excellent career line (.312/.418/.515). All three of these numbers point to prolonged excellence. His career OPS+ (147) tells me that he was an elite hitter and slugger. While I do think extra credit can be given to hitters who can also field, I don't think fair to judge him as necessarily someone who cannot field.

Then we are left to look at how dominant a hitter he truly was. From 1995-2001, a span of 7 seasons, Martinez' lowest OPS+ was 152, never hit below .306, had at least 23 homers and 86 rbi (driving in over 102 in the other 6 seasons), and slugging .543 or better every year. I would definitely consider that to be a dominant stretch, and coupled with his career numbers, leads me to believe he is a Hall of Famer.

MY VOTE: YES

Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Mark McGwire

Player Profile - Baseball Reference.com

Career Accomplishments
583 homers
OPS+ of 162
100+ rbi seasons: 7
40 homer seasons: 6
.263/.394/.588

The Case for McGwire

McGwire had some of the most dominant seasons a slugger can have. He hit 49 homers his rookie year, and from 1996-1999 was other-worldly (52, 58, 70, 66). He had 7 seasons with an OPS over 1.000 (1993, 1995-2000). He is currently 8th all-time with 583 homers, 9th all-time with a .588 career slugging percentage, and 12th all time with an OPS+ of 162. And of course the 70 homer record-breaking season in 1998.

The Case Against McGwire

McGwire only hit .263 in his career, a reasonable average but nothing particularly special. He was not known as a particularly good fielder, and missed substantial time due to injuries. And then of course there are the elephants in the room: The implications related to his use of androstenedione; the questions regarding whether he used steroids during his career; his testimony before Congress regarding performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

Analysis

It is extremely difficult to get past that homerun total. 583 is good for 8th all time, and was 5th when he retired. McGwire's numbers show him to be a hitter with an excellent eye and monumental power. One of my criteria has been whether a player was truly excellent for a sustained period, or simply above-average for a longer period. It is my opinion that McGwire represents a truly excellent player, specifically from 1996-2000, a span of 5 seasons.

Realistically, I don't believe it was ever going to be Big Mac's numbers which concerned voters. While his use of andro was within the rules of the game when he was taking it, his unwillingness to "talk about the past" while testifying to Congress is his bell which cannot be unrung. However, without proof positive, I simply do not see how we can judge him on things we simply do not know for certain.

There is always a lot of talk about judging was is good for the integrity of the game. But I just cannot see how it is that we as fans can judge him any differently because he was receiving more media coverage. Would we have had the same disdain if we received as much information about Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, or any of the other scandals of the early years of baseball?

I believe that McGwire represents one of the most dominant power hitters in an era that is filled with them. And without proof or an admission that he cheated, I think we have to look at his career based on the breadth of his performance. And that performance was excellent.

MY VOTE: YES

Hall of Fame Ballot Review - Jack Morris

Player Profile on Baseball Reference.com

Notable Career Accomplishments
254-186 record
3.90 career ERA
ERA+ of 105
175 complete games
20 win seasons - 3
World Series Championships - 3

The Case for Morris

The first thing I think of when I hear Jack Morris' name is that he was the big game pitcher. You wanted him to start Game 1, and you wanted him for Game 7 as well. He pitched for 18 seasons, 14 of them with the Detroit Tigers. 254 wins, 175 complete games, 2478 strikeouts, and those 3 championships (1984, 1991, 1992) all portray him very well, especially the Game 7 10 inning shutout he threw to clinch the series victory in 1991.

The Case Against Morris

A career ERA+ (ERA adjusted against league average) of 105 tells us he was really only about 5% better than league average over the span of his career. A strikeout rate of 5.8 per 9 innings would hardly be considered dominant, as would having 186 losses as well. His 3.90 era over his career, while very good, seems high for a period in baseball where runs were not being scored at a rapid rate.

Analysis

While his big game reputation and success in those games are definitely a strong point in his favor, I don't think he was in enough of those types of games for that alone to warrant his selection. So I am forced to look at the rest of the body of his work. A 3.90 ERA and an ERA+ of 105 both cause me some concern. Both of these numbers tell me that he was an above-average pitcher, but not necessarily an elite one. Throw in his lower strikeout-per-9 inning rate, and it really shows me a pitcher who was not necessarily a dominant one.

This leaves me to look at his year-to-year statistics to see if he had prolonged periods of excellence. From 1983-1988, he had:

• an ERA under 3.40: 4 times
• 15 wins or more: 7 times
• 200 strikeouts: 3 times
• ERA+ of 120 or higher: 3 times
• 10+ complete games: 6 times

This appears to be the best sustained stretch of excellence that Morris had in his career, and while it is  clear that he had a very good career, I'm not sold that he warrants selection into the Hall of Fame.

MY VOTE: NO

Hall of Fame Eligible Players Review

I'm starting a new series today, and I'll be going over the list of players on this year's ballot for the Hall of Fame, and analyzing the ones who I believe have at least a reasonable chance of being inducted. The complete ballot can be viewed here.

Here's the schedule:

12/4: Jack Morris
12/7: Mark McGwire
12/9: Edgar Martinez
12/11: Fred McGriff
12/14: Harold Baines
12/16: Barry Larkin
12/18: Bert Blyleven
12/21: Roberto Alomar
12/23: Andre Dawson
12/25: Tim Raines
12/28: My Hall of Fame Ballot

Roster Rules Review and the Next Set of Posts

With my post about trades and the trade deadline, I've finished up my Roster Rules series.

1. The 25 man roster
2. The 40 man roster
3. The Disabled List
4. Free Agency and Free Agent Compensation
   
5. Arbitration
6. The Rule 4 draft (June Amateur)
7. The Rule 5 draft (December)
8. Trades, the Trade Deadlines and Waivers

 Starting Friday, I am going to be reviewing some of the top candidates for the Writers' Ballot for the Hall of Fame.

Roster Rules - Trades, the Trade Deadlines, and Waivers

A trade, essentially, is the movement between 2 or more teams of player contracts. Teams can make trades with any team they choose, involving any players that they choose, but there are some limitations:

• Teams cannot trade players drafted in the Rule 4 draft for 1 year from the date of the draft.
• Players can have no-trade clauses added to their contracts, generally only as a part of a new contract.
• Players can earn no-trade rights by having 10 years of service time in the major leagues, and having 5 years of service time with their current team.
• Players can waive their no-trade rights to facilitate a trade if they so desire.
• Teams can send monetary considerations as a part of the trade. Any amount of $1 million in cash must be approved by the commissioner's office.
• Teams can also include a "Player to be Named Later". Generally, this is a player who has already been determined by the teams involved, but cannot be included for various reasons.
• Free agents who sign a contract cannot be traded until after May 1st of the first season of the contract.

The Trade Deadlines

There are 2 trade deadlines:

• July 31st: The Non-Waiver Trade Deadline
• August 31st: The Postseason Roster Trade Deadline

After the July 31st trade deadline, a player must be placed on waivers and clear waivers before they can be traded to any team. Teams have until August 31st to trade for a player if they want to have them on their postseason roster.

Waivers

Players are placed on waivers in the period between July 31st and August 31st, with very few exceptions. Teams are allowed to make a claim to any player placed on waivers, and based on how many teams claim the player will determine how the claim is rewarded:

• If no one claims a player, they are said to have "cleared waivers", and can be traded to any team 
  
• If only one team claims the player, that team is awarded the claim.
• If more than one team claims the player, the team with the worst record in their own league is offered the claim.

If a player is claimed, they can only be traded to the team that was awarded the claim. If they choose not to trade the player to this team, they can pull him back off of waivers. What this does is make the player essentially untradeable during this period. A team can only pull a player back from waivers once in this time period. If they place the player on waivers again, they cannot pull him back again.

Once a waiver claim has been awarded, the team with the player can try to negotiate a trade with the team that was awarded the claim.

Example:

Alex Rios was placed on waivers last season during the month of August. A claim was placed on him, and this gave the Blue Jays three choices:

• Pull him back off of waivers, and not allow him to be traded without exposing him to waivers a second time.
• Negotiate with the team that won the claim (The White Sox) to try and get something in return for him via trade
• Simply allow the other team to have the player, without any return. The new team would be responsible for the entirety of their contract, and the old team would be off the hook for any of it.

In this particular example, the Blue Jays chose option #3, and were free of the rather large contract of Rios.

Sources:
ESPN.Com article  - Waiver Rules

Roster Rules - The Rule 5 Draft

Yesterday, I talked about the Rule 4 Amateur Draft. Today I move on to the Rule 5 Draft.

The Rule 5 draft is done every year in December. Only certain players are eligible for this draft:

• Players must not be on any team's 40 man roster. There is a deadline for this roster to lock.
• Players who signed at age 19 or older are eligible if they have been in the organization for 4+ years.
• Players who signed before age 19 are eligible if they have been in the organization for 5+ years.

The draft order is set in the same way that the Rule 4 draft is set, by won-loss record for the previous season. The difference with this draft is that each team can only draft if they have a spot available on their 40 man roster for this player.  If they do draft someone, they are required to keep that player on their 25 man roster for the entire next season. They are not able to send them back to the minor leagues without at least offering the player back to their original team first. As a result of this, the draft has been used mostly of late to find high potential pitchers who can be hidden down in the major league bullpen.

There is also a minor league portion, where players in A or AA can be drafted, and must be kept in AAA for the whole season.

Notable examples of players found via this draft: Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria


Sources:

Wikipedia